TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077148
Played Sep 5Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6115111113––––
Jacek Wieczerzak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Wieczerzak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Jacek Wieczerzak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 57 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Jacek Wieczerzak at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 3–2 Jacek Wieczerzak Jacek Wieczerzak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Wieczerzak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1438 vs Wieczerzak 1542
Wieczerzak
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 40% vs Wieczerzak 60%
Wieczerzak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 50% vs Wieczerzak 70%
Wieczerzak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -3 · Wieczerzak +1
Sobkow
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wieczerzak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.83 / Wieczerzak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wieczerzak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13077148
Sobkow1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
Wieczerzak1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSobkow3wins
AwayWieczerzak2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderSobkow leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobkow50%2 of 4
AwayWieczerzakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow4Wieczerzak1n = 5Sobkow took 4 of 5
S2Sobkow4Wieczerzak1n = 5Sobkow took 4 of 5
S3Sobkow1Wieczerzak4n = 5Wieczerzak took 4 of 5
S4Sobkow1Wieczerzak3n = 4Wieczerzak took 3 of 4
S5Sobkow2Wieczerzak1n = 3Sobkow took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSobkowWieczerzakS − WBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match40.441.8−1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowWieczerzakBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 67 vs 131 / 24156.7%54.4%38 / 67 vs 131 / 241Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WieczerzakSobkow 1.83/Wieczerzak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wieczerzak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Wieczerzak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 5 · 06:30Z. Sobkow—1111113J. Wieczerzak—7990
LAug 23 · 14:20Z. Sobkow—131122112J. Wieczerzak—1171111133
LAug 23 · 08:10Z. Sobkow—116351J. Wieczerzak—31111113
WAug 22 · 14:20Z. Sobkow—12111012113J. Wieczerzak—147121072
WAug 22 · 08:10Z. Sobkow—111188113J. Wieczerzak—77111192
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133WSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481
J. Wieczerzak10
WSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:05P. Gumulinski2.1011111311113J. Wieczerzak1.6713615652LSep 6 · 12:15J. Wieczerzak1.2891211442O. Vincenec3.501110911113LSep 6 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.4089100J. Jesiek2.751111123WSep 6 · 09:50P. Jedrzejak1.573780J. Wieczerzak2.251111113WSep 6 · 08:35J. Wieczerzak1.401111113O. Vincenec2.757660LSep 6 · 06:55J. Wieczerzak1.6191111782P. Gumulinski2.20114911113LSep 6 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak2.009680P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133LSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak1.36117131192J. Jesiek3.00811155113
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