TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13066698
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr Ziakun
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118811711711––
Oleh Kurylenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Kurylenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ziakun above · Oleh Kurylenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Oleh Kurylenko at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ziakun 52–68 Oleh Kurylenko Oleksandr Ziakun has won 52 of their 120 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kurylenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-68 in 120
Kurylenko
Correct
gap of 16 in 120, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ziakun 1527 vs Kurylenko 1496
Ziakun
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ziakun 20% vs Kurylenko 60%
Kurylenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ziakun 30% vs Kurylenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ziakun +1 · Kurylenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurylenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ziakun form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZiakun 2.00 / Kurylenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kurylenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13066698
Ziakun2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 94 of 263
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 79
Kurylenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 160 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it92% 75 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it81% 112 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZiakun5wins
AwayKurylenko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZiakun80%4 of 5
AwayKurylenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ziakun5Kurylenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Ziakun7Kurylenko3n = 10Ziakun took 7 of 10
S3Ziakun5Kurylenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Ziakun3Kurylenko6n = 9Kurylenko took 6 of 9
S5Ziakun2Kurylenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZiakunKurylenkoZ − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.541.6−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZiakunKurylenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 743 vs 492 / 98847.2%49.8%351 / 743 vs 492 / 988Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoZiakun 2.00/Kurylenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurylenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 07:30O. Ziakun—118771O. Kurylenko—81111113
LSep 2 · 09:00O. Ziakun—913881O. Kurylenko—111111113
WAug 31 · 06:00O. Ziakun—411811113O. Kurylenko—11811572
WAug 25 · 11:00O. Ziakun—11711113O. Kurylenko—911491
LAug 21 · 09:00O. Ziakun—71111772O. Kurylenko—116911113
WAug 19 · 07:30O. Ziakun—1111113O. Kurylenko—7970
WAug 13 · 07:30O. Ziakun—15713113O. Kurylenko—13111161
LAug 11 · 09:00O. Ziakun—6111071O. Kurylenko—11612113
LAug 10 · 11:00O. Ziakun—101111592O. Kurylenko—129611113
WAug 4 · 07:30O. Ziakun—1411714113O. Kurylenko—129111672
O. Ziakun10
WSep 3 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.736121014113S. Maliuk2.001110121282WSep 3 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.571111113O. Lyman2.257760WSep 3 · 06:00O. Ziakun1.441012118153S. Miroshnychenko2.631210711132LSep 3 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.107860D. Kuzmenko1.671111113LSep 2 · 10:30O. Ziakun2.638111151M. Hubenko1.4411139113LSep 2 · 09:00O. Ziakun2.10913881O. Kurylenko1.67111111113LSep 2 · 07:30O. Ziakun2.50691151A. Vasylets1.5011115113LSep 2 · 06:00O. Ziakun2.6371210121O. Syksa1.44111012143WSep 2 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.10111110113D. Kuzmenko1.67861251LAug 31 · 10:30O. Ziakun2.10471191D. Prylepa1.6711118113
O. Kurylenko10
LSep 7 · 07:30D. Prylepa1.619111011113O. Kurylenko2.2011412842LSep 7 · 06:30O. Kurylenko4.335580S. Chuhai1.201111113WSep 7 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko2.005670O. Kurylenko1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.534860O. Lyman2.381111113LSep 4 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.361211118123O. Kurylenko3.00144511102WSep 4 · 07:30O. Syksa1.6741181182O. Kurylenko2.10116118113WSep 4 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.7351111113S. Maliuk2.00117781WSep 4 · 05:30D. Prylepa1.61311951O. Kurylenko2.2011911113LSep 3 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.4429140S. Miroshnychenko2.631111163WSep 2 · 09:00O. Ziakun2.10913881O. Kurylenko1.67111111113
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