TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13058534
Played Sep 2Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111138111311211
Piotr Przewlocki
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timePiotr Przewlocki to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kaczmarek above · Piotr Przewlocki below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 86 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Piotr Przewlocki at 54.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 13–15 Piotr Przewlocki Jakub Kaczmarek has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:23What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Przewlocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-15 in 28
Przewlocki
Correct
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1315 vs Przewlocki 1335
Przewlocki
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Przewlocki 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Przewlocki 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -2 · Przewlocki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Przewlocki) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przewlocki form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 2.20 / Przewlocki 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Przewlocki)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13058534
Kaczmarek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 164 of 501
Down 0–1, comes back18% 58 of 324
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 181
Przewlocki1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 127 of 221
Up 2–0, closes it94% 49 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it74% 83 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek6wins
AwayPrzewlocki4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKaczmarek leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek100%3 of 3
AwayPrzewlocki57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek3Przewlocki7n = 10Przewlocki took 7 of 10
S2Kaczmarek4Przewlocki6n = 10Przewlocki took 6 of 10
S3Kaczmarek7Przewlocki3n = 10Kaczmarek took 7 of 10
S4Kaczmarek4Przewlocki5n = 9Przewlocki took 5 of 9
S5Kaczmarek5Przewlocki2n = 7Kaczmarek took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekPrzewlockiK − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match44.644.7−0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekPrzewlockiBasisWin rate · lifetime467 / 1285 vs 508 / 107636.3%47.2%467 / 1285 vs 508 / 1076Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrzewlockiKaczmarek 2.20/Przewlocki 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Przewlocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Przewlocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek—119611123P. Przewlocki—811114102
LSep 2 · 06:55J. Kaczmarek—51181322P. Przewlocki—1131111113
WAug 24 · 09:25J. Kaczmarek—711116113P. Przewlocki—11671192
LAug 24 · 03:25J. Kaczmarek—881561P. Przewlocki—111113113
WAug 5 · 09:50J. Kaczmarek—9101111113P. Przewlocki—11124892
LAug 5 · 05:40J. Kaczmarek—911119102P. Przewlocki—119911123
WAug 3 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek—81111113P. Przewlocki—119861
LJul 15 · 02:35J. Kaczmarek—91290P. Przewlocki—1114113
WJul 14 · 18:10J. Kaczmarek—114159133P. Przewlocki—7111311112
WJun 24 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek—118119113P. Przewlocki—81181192
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731WSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.20115911113J. Kaczmarek3.8541111792LSep 4 · 11:05O. Jadach1.301113153J. Kaczmarek3.20811130LSep 4 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek3.3591131172S. Szostok1.27119119113WSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113WSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113LSep 4 · 05:55G. Wichowski1.251111113J. Kaczmarek3.509380
P. Przewlocki10
LSep 7 · 08:35M. Adamus1.6711119113P. Przewlocki2.10591161LSep 7 · 07:20P. Przewlocki1.5311961182R. Niemiec2.38911115113LSep 7 · 06:05J. Pruszkowski1.5311817113P. Przewlocki2.385111581WSep 7 · 04:55J. Nowak1.83111351292P. Przewlocki1.835111114113WSep 7 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310911131P. Przewlocki2.0012116153WSep 2 · 14:40P. Przewlocki2.101151111113K. Adamus1.6791113992LSep 2 · 13:05P. Przewlocki1.53811114102J. Kaczmarek2.38119611123LSep 2 · 11:50P. Przewlocki2.6371113562W. Ptak1.441181111113LSep 2 · 10:10P. Przewlocki2.201071191P. Brozek1.6112119113LSep 2 · 09:00P. Przewlocki1.674590O. Vincenec2.101111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Kaczmarek
Sep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.10W. Urban1.67—Sep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.00K. Hetnar1.22—Sep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00M. Adamus1.73—Sep 7 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.20P. Przewlocki1.61—Sep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek—M. Adamus——Sep 8 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek—K. Hetnar——Sep 8 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 8 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek—R. Skotniczny——Sep 8 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—M. Cesarz——
P. Przewlocki
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