TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13037278
Played Aug 30Finished
Vojtech Stach
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119118––––
David Mutl
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Stach to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Stach above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Vojtech Stach at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Stach 1–1 David Mutl Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:30What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mutl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stach 1191 vs Mutl 1231
Mutl
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stach 20% vs Mutl 80%
Mutl
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stach 40% vs Mutl 70%
Mutl
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stach -2 · Mutl +4
Mutl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mutl) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStach 1.91 / Mutl 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mutl)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13037278
Stach1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog53% won 16 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back14% 2 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Mutl1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 23 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStach1wins
AwayMutl1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricStachMutlS − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match32.533.0−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStachMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 128 vs 53 / 10251.6%52%66 / 128 vs 53 / 102Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MutlStach 1.91/Mutl 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mutl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 21 · 22:00V. Stach—111110113D. Mutl—861271
LMay 8 · 23:30V. Stach—6880D. Mutl—1111113
V. Stach10
WSep 5 · 17:03M. Syroha1.514670V. Stach2.401111113WSep 5 · 16:00V. Stach2.6351112123M. Syroha1.4411810101LSep 5 · 15:30J. Grohsgott1.671111133V. Stach2.1038110LSep 5 · 14:00V. Stach2.509790M. Regner1.501111113WSep 5 · 13:30M. Syroha2.2561141182V. Stach1.57118118113LSep 5 · 12:00M. Syroha1.441114126113V. Stach2.63512141112WSep 5 · 11:00L. Havrda1.5728100V. Stach2.251111123LSep 5 · 10:30V. Stach2.1011470J. Grohsgott1.671311113LAug 30 · 03:30L. Havrda1.851111113V. Stach1.856380WAug 30 · 02:00J. Grohsgott1.671411461V. Stach2.1016511113
D. Mutl10
WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl2.636560J. Grohsgott1.441111113LSep 2 · 06:00J. Svec1.441111143D. Mutl2.6394120
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