TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13022285
Played Aug 26Finished
Jakub Stolfa
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9119111214––––
Jiri Pozarsky
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Jiri Pozarsky below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 66 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 4–4 Jiri Pozarsky Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:10What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pozarsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1673 vs Pozarsky 1648
Stolfa
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 80% vs Pozarsky 60%
Stolfa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 90% vs Pozarsky 50%
Stolfa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa +3 · Pozarsky +1
Stolfa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pozarsky) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 2.00 / Pozarsky 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pozarsky)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13022285
Stolfa2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog56% won 49 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back37% 18 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Pozarsky1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 29 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 24 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStolfa4wins
AwayPozarsky4wins
5 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStolfa66.7%2 of 3
AwayPozarsky60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolfa3Pozarsky5n = 8Pozarsky took 5 of 8
S2Stolfa4Pozarsky4n = 8split evenly
S3Stolfa2Pozarsky6n = 8Pozarsky took 6 of 8
S4Stolfa2Pozarsky4n = 6Pozarsky took 4 of 6
S5Stolfa4Pozarsky1n = 5Stolfa took 4 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home450%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricStolfaPozarskyS − PBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.241.4−3.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaPozarskyBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 357 vs 160 / 33852.9%47.3%189 / 357 vs 160 / 338Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PozarskyStolfa 2.00/Pozarsky 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pozarsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pozarsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 26 · 15:30J. Stolfa—912118113J. Pozarsky—111061132
WAug 14 · 10:30J. Stolfa—311115113J. Pozarsky—11851192
WAug 8 · 17:00J. Stolfa—115911113J. Pozarsky—41111992
LAug 8 · 15:00J. Stolfa—911871J. Pozarsky—11811113
LJul 1 · 06:00J. Stolfa—11115672J. Pozarsky—561111113
LSep 27 · 13:00J. Stolfa—67120J. Pozarsky—1111143
WSep 27 · 11:00J. Stolfa—12881283J. Pozarsky—1011111062
LAug 5 · 06:00J. Stolfa—6850J. Pozarsky—1111113
J. Stolfa10
LSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113WSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113LSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113WSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881LSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:00J. Stolfa3.4061111782M. Pikous1.30117911113WSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113LSep 4 · 08:00J. Stolfa2.25131091192D. Hofman1.571112117113
J. Pozarsky10
WAug 31 · 21:30J. Pozarsky1.651112113J. Stolfa2.1051060WAug 31 · 20:30J. Stolfa2.00881451J. Pozarsky1.73111112113WAug 31 · 19:30J. Pozarsky2.5091211113J. Hradecky1.501110931LAug 31 · 18:30S. Kadavy1.73512119113J. Pozarsky2.00111061162WAug 29 · 16:58P. Budinsky1.40115391J. Pozarsky2.7571111113LAug 29 · 16:00J. Pozarsky1.7311891582D. Tuma2.005111113113LAug 29 · 15:30T. Vinter1.911111103J. Pozarsky1.807760LAug 29 · 14:00J. Pozarsky1.57119861P. Budinsky2.2581111113WAug 26 · 16:00J. Pozarsky1.731111113M. Vizek2.005980LAug 26 · 15:30J. Stolfa2.00912118113J. Pozarsky1.73111061132
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