TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015093
Played Aug 26Finished
Petr Wasik
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711118811811––
Lukas Heinzl
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:55 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timePetr Wasik to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Wasik above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Petr Wasik at 65.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Petr Wasik 5–3 Lukas Heinzl Lukas Heinzl has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Wasik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Wasik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wasik 1806 vs Heinzl 1765
Wasik
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wasik 40% vs Heinzl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wasik 60% vs Heinzl 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wasik -2 · Heinzl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Wasik) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wasik form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWasik 1.53 / Heinzl 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Wasik)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13015093
Wasik1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 46 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Heinzl2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 43 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeWasik5wins
AwayHeinzl3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderWasik leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWasik100%3 of 3
AwayHeinzl60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wasik3Heinzl5n = 8Heinzl took 5 of 8
S2Wasik5Heinzl3n = 8Wasik took 5 of 8
S3Wasik3Heinzl5n = 8Heinzl took 5 of 8
S4Wasik4Heinzl2n = 6Wasik took 4 of 6
S5Wasik3Heinzl1n = 4Wasik took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricWasikHeinzlW − HBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.635.9+2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWasikHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 119 vs 345 / 63161.3%54.7%73 / 119 vs 345 / 631Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WasikWasik 1.53/Heinzl 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Wasik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 26 · 10:15P. Wasik—711881L. Heinzl—11811113
LAug 21 · 10:15P. Wasik—81191152L. Heinzl—118113113
WJul 3 · 05:15P. Wasik—111111113L. Heinzl—841371
LJun 23 · 10:00P. Wasik—0870L. Heinzl—1111113
WMay 29 · 07:15P. Wasik—931111113L. Heinzl—11113682
WMar 9 · 09:35P. Wasik—111169113L. Heinzl—93111182
WMar 9 · 08:15P. Wasik—581111113L. Heinzl—11115552
WFeb 9 · 08:15P. Wasik—1111113L. Heinzl—4780
P. Wasik10
WSep 7 · 08:18L. Veigl2.758670P. Wasik1.401111113WSep 7 · 07:15P. Wasik1.611211113L. Veigl2.2010850LSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113WSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182WAug 28 · 08:53V. Burylov2.3810960P. Wasik1.531211113WAug 28 · 07:15P. Wasik1.6111911113M. Zelinka2.20311921WAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:15P. Wasik1.44910110V. Burylov2.631112133LAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:15P. Wasik1.441191271M. Kocvara2.6361114113
L. Heinzl10
LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960
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