TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13001542
Played Aug 24Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711117117115––
Zdenek Dusek
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 79.8% is still 79.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
79.8%
79.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Zdenek Dusek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 79.8%
70 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 30–10 Zdenek Dusek Zdenek Dusek has won 10 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-10 in 40
Jr
Correct
gap of 20 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1409 vs Dusek 1324
Jr
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Dusek 20%
Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 30% vs Dusek 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +2 · Dusek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dusek form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.36 / Dusek 3.00
Signal prob.80% / 20%
Edge (Jr)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #13001542
Jr1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 77 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it80% 59 of 74
Dusek3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 64 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr9wins
AwayDusek1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr100%6 of 6
AwayDusek25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Dusek4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr6Dusek4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Jr6Dusek4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr8Dusek1n = 9Jr took 8 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrDusekJ − DBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.433.9+8.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrDusekBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 622 vs 196 / 48153.4%40.8%332 / 622 vs 196 / 481Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.36/Dusek 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.8%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 19:20T. Jr—71111113Z. Dusek—117751
WAug 6 · 20:25T. Jr—11911113Z. Dusek—911861
WAug 2 · 21:23T. Jr—11116113Z. Dusek—771141
WAug 2 · 18:20T. Jr—1110911113Z. Dusek—41211672
WJul 30 · 21:53T. Jr—1111113Z. Dusek—8360
LJul 30 · 19:55T. Jr—11911111Z. Dusek—13118133
WJun 22 · 19:55T. Jr—8111011113Z. Dusek—11712332
WJun 21 · 22:00T. Jr—12144113Z. Dusek—10121181
WJun 21 · 20:25T. Jr—11811133Z. Dusek—7116111
WJun 8 · 22:00T. Jr—81111113Z. Dusek—117951
T. Jr10
WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113LSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881WSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113WAug 30 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil1.807270T. Jr1.901111113LAug 30 · 20:50T. Jr1.8012514101Z. Vyskocil1.91141112123
Z. Dusek10
WAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113LAug 31 · 20:50L. Vich1.7311714113Z. Dusek2.009111241WAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161LAug 31 · 18:20S. Matousch2.251111123Z. Dusek1.5736100WAug 27 · 21:28Z. Dusek2.2511135113T. Barsa1.578111171LAug 27 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.61821113113Z. Dusek2.20111161152WAug 27 · 19:50Z. Dusek2.38118411113T. Barsa1.5361111562LAug 27 · 18:20T. Jr1.331111153Z. Dusek3.2546130LAug 24 · 21:23T. Jr1.361111123Z. Dusek3.0067100LAug 24 · 20:50Z. Dusek2.2511117892T. Barsa1.57791111113
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