TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472148
Played Aug 22Finished
Ihor Serdiuk
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119116117––
Vitalii Ananiev
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:26 and never touched — 81.9% is still 81.9%
Graded at full timeIhor Serdiuk to win
81.9%
81.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Serdiuk above · Vitalii Ananiev below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Ihor Serdiuk at 81.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Serdiuk 19–8 Vitalii Ananiev Vitalii Ananiev has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Serdiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-8 in 27
Serdiuk
Correct
gap of 11 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serdiuk 1276 vs Ananiev 1198
Serdiuk
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serdiuk 40% vs Ananiev 20%
Serdiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serdiuk 40% vs Ananiev 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Serdiuk -3 · Ananiev +1
Serdiuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Serdiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 82% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ananiev form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerdiuk 1.33 / Ananiev 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Serdiuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472148
Serdiuk1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 82 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it98% 44 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it90% 61 of 68
Ananiev3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 30 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back17% 10 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSerdiuk8wins
AwayAnaniev2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSerdiuk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerdiuk100%5 of 5
AwayAnaniev40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serdiuk5Ananiev5n = 10split evenly
S2Serdiuk7Ananiev3n = 10Serdiuk took 7 of 10
S3Serdiuk6Ananiev4n = 10Serdiuk took 6 of 10
S4Serdiuk4Ananiev4n = 8split evenly
S5Serdiuk4Ananiev0n = 4Serdiuk took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSerdiukAnanievS − ABasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.138.6+4.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerdiukAnanievBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 336 vs 121 / 28666.1%42.3%222 / 336 vs 121 / 286Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerdiukSerdiuk 1.33/Ananiev 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Serdiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Serdiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 24 · 13:00I. Serdiuk—1116113V. Ananiev—21480
WJul 22 · 15:30I. Serdiuk—1291113113V. Ananiev—101171512
WMay 31 · 05:30I. Serdiuk—1111113V. Ananiev—3760
LApr 19 · 13:00I. Serdiuk—71111111V. Ananiev—11813133
WFeb 21 · 12:00I. Serdiuk—311116113V. Ananiev—11441192
LJan 24 · 06:30I. Serdiuk—6121071V. Ananiev—111012113
WJan 10 · 06:30I. Serdiuk—1111411113V. Ananiev—13911972
WJan 3 · 08:00I. Serdiuk—13714123V. Ananiev—111112101
WDec 27 · 06:30I. Serdiuk—12611113V. Ananiev—1011371
WDec 14 · 17:00I. Serdiuk—1011911123V. Ananiev—129117112
I. Serdiuk10
WSep 6 · 17:00I. Torhachov2.2590I. Serdiuk1.57111WSep 6 · 16:30I. Serdiuk2.7511116113V. Ziakun1.40631141LSep 6 · 15:30I. Serdiuk1.91671121I. Torhachov1.801111733WSep 6 · 14:00I. Serdiuk1.5711713113S. Priadko2.255111151LSep 6 · 13:00I. Serdiuk1.2081231182R. Boklah4.331110113113LSep 5 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.2588100O. Kolos3.751111123LSep 5 · 09:30V. Ananiev3.401111113I. Serdiuk1.304980WSep 5 · 07:30Y. Priadko4.0091111101I. Serdiuk1.2211135123WSep 5 · 06:30I. Serdiuk1.2011119113R. Boklah4.33471151WSep 5 · 05:30A. Fastov2.75137761I. Serdiuk1.40111111113
V. Ananiev10
WSep 5 · 10:30Y. Priadko2.631183121V. Ananiev1.4471111143WSep 5 · 09:30V. Ananiev3.401111113I. Serdiuk1.304980WSep 5 · 08:30V. Ananiev1.571211113R. Boklah2.2510290LSep 5 · 07:00V. Ananiev2.6396111152A. Fastov1.44111198113LSep 5 · 05:00V. Ananiev2.101111121262O. Kolos1.675131014113LAug 22 · 11:30O. Kolos1.73119511113V. Ananiev2.0071111852LAug 22 · 10:00V. Ananiev2.631151151S. Priadko1.4481113113WAug 22 · 06:00R. Boklah2.258730V. Ananiev1.571111113LAug 22 · 05:00A. Fastov1.611111113V. Ananiev2.206740LAug 19 · 16:30V. Ananiev2.639111061S. Priadko1.4411912113
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