TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472122
Played Aug 22Finished
Oleksandr Kolos
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117911511118115
Vitalii Ananiev
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Kolos to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Kolos above · Vitalii Ananiev below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 89 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Oleksandr Kolos at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolos 13–9 Vitalii Ananiev Vitalii Ananiev has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolos
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Kolos
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolos 1176 vs Ananiev 1180
Ananiev
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolos 60% vs Ananiev 20%
Kolos
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolos 70% vs Ananiev 30%
Kolos
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolos +1 · Ananiev -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ananiev) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ananiev form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolos 1.73 / Ananiev 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ananiev)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #12472122
Kolos1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 44 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Ananiev2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 30 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back17% 10 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolos8wins
AwayAnaniev2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolos leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolos85.7%6 of 7
AwayAnaniev33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolos7Ananiev3n = 10Kolos took 7 of 10
S2Kolos7Ananiev3n = 10Kolos took 7 of 10
S3Kolos5Ananiev5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolos5Ananiev2n = 7Kolos took 5 of 7
S5Kolos2Ananiev1n = 3Kolos took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolosAnanievK − ABasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.633.6+6.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolosAnanievBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 307 vs 121 / 28851.5%42%158 / 307 vs 121 / 288Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AnanievKolos 1.73/Ananiev 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ananiev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 07:00O. Kolos—11119113V. Ananiev—921161
WJun 6 · 09:30O. Kolos—11119113V. Ananiev—891181
WMay 26 · 15:00O. Kolos—11612113V. Ananiev—8111061
WMar 25 · 14:30O. Kolos—811118113V. Ananiev—11741162
LJan 31 · 08:30O. Kolos—11118992V. Ananiev—691111113
WJan 17 · 08:30O. Kolos—9101111113V. Ananiev—11122892
WJan 10 · 08:00O. Kolos—11113113V. Ananiev—881141
WJan 3 · 10:30O. Kolos—1111113V. Ananiev—6760
LDec 30 · 18:02O. Kolos—6690V. Ananiev—1111113
WDec 30 · 13:30O. Kolos—1111113V. Ananiev—8890
O. Kolos10
WSep 5 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.2588100O. Kolos3.751111123WSep 5 · 10:00O. Kolos3.00121399113R. Boklah1.361011111132WSep 5 · 08:00A. Fastov1.73931211102O. Kolos2.001111103123LSep 5 · 06:00Y. Priadko1.8014711133O. Kolos1.9112116111WSep 5 · 05:00V. Ananiev2.101111121262O. Kolos1.675131014113LAug 29 · 11:30O. Kolos4.503590S. Priadko1.171111113WAug 29 · 09:30A. Fastov1.8011237782O. Kolos1.919211111113LAug 29 · 07:30R. Boklah1.3611611113O. Kolos3.00811771LAug 29 · 06:30O. Kolos4.0013151081I. Torhachov1.22151312113LAug 29 · 05:30I. Serdiuk1.301111113O. Kolos3.405950
V. Ananiev10
WSep 5 · 10:30Y. Priadko2.631183121V. Ananiev1.4471111143WSep 5 · 09:30V. Ananiev3.401111113I. Serdiuk1.304980WSep 5 · 08:30V. Ananiev1.571211113R. Boklah2.2510290LSep 5 · 07:00V. Ananiev2.6396111152A. Fastov1.44111198113LSep 5 · 05:00V. Ananiev2.101111121262O. Kolos1.675131014113LAug 22 · 10:00V. Ananiev2.631151151S. Priadko1.4481113113LAug 22 · 08:00I. Serdiuk1.3381111113V. Ananiev3.25119671WAug 22 · 06:00R. Boklah2.258730V. Ananiev1.571111113LAug 22 · 05:00A. Fastov1.611111113V. Ananiev2.206740LAug 19 · 16:30V. Ananiev2.639111061S. Priadko1.4411912113
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