TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12470118
Played Aug 21Finished
Blazej Warpas
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181311611115––
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
1.76
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:14 and never touched — 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
1181311611115––
H2H Blazej Warpas 3–5 Arkadiusz Mugowski Blazej Warpas has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:14What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (52%)
Mugowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Mugowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Warpas 1255 vs Mugowski 1353
Mugowski
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Warpas 20% vs Mugowski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Warpas 30% vs Mugowski 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Warpas -3 · Mugowski -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Mugowski) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWarpas 1.90 / Mugowski 1.76
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Mugowski)+3.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12470118
Warpas1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 117 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Mugowski1.76
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 131 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it97% 65 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it82% 102 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeWarpas3wins
AwayMugowski5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMugowski leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWarpas66.7%2 of 3
AwayMugowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Warpas3Mugowski5n = 8Mugowski took 5 of 8
S2Warpas4Mugowski4n = 8split evenly
S3Warpas5Mugowski3n = 8Warpas took 5 of 8
S4Warpas5Mugowski2n = 7Warpas took 5 of 7
S5Warpas0Mugowski3n = 3Mugowski took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricWarpasMugowskiW − MBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match40.840.2+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWarpasMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 811 vs 958 / 209251.9%45.8%421 / 811 vs 958 / 2092Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiWarpas 1.90/Mugowski 1.76
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Warpas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 21 · 08:35B. Warpas—1310111152A. Mugowski—151278113
LJul 24 · 06:55B. Warpas—89111182A. Mugowski—111189113
LJul 24 · 04:30B. Warpas—117691A. Mugowski—71111113
WMay 17 · 17:25B. Warpas—12126113A. Mugowski—10101161
WApr 18 · 14:20B. Warpas—91111113A. Mugowski—115781
WMar 5 · 17:15B. Warpas—1111113A. Mugowski—7880
LFeb 22 · 24:25B. Warpas—871191A. Mugowski—11118113
LFeb 21 · 22:05B. Warpas—71191172A. Mugowski—116118113
B. Warpas10
LAug 21 · 12:40B. Warpas2.90101171292M. Minda1.351291110113LAug 21 · 11:25B. Warpas3.205860M. Misiak1.301111113LAug 21 · 10:10D. Solilo1.3711115113B. Warpas2.87991171WAug 21 · 09:25B. Warpas2.4671111123R. Stapor1.461189101LAug 21 · 08:35B. Warpas1.951310111152A. Mugowski1.75151278113WAug 21 · 06:55B. Warpas2.25114117113B. Sulkowski1.5541191192WAug 21 · 05:40B. Warpas1.661111113M. Lukaszewski2.055880LAug 21 · 04:10B. Warpas1.7411791172K. Sulkowski1.94311116113LAug 21 · 03:00B. Warpas2.858990M. Misiak1.361111113LAug 20 · 07:40B. Warpas2.408690I. Dabrowski1.471111113
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113WAug 21 · 08:35B. Warpas1.951310111152A. Mugowski1.75151278113
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