TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12469092
Played Aug 21Finished
Blazej Warpas
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13151012117118511
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
1.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:44 and never touched — 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
103 points played in total.
Set by set
13151012117118511
H2H Blazej Warpas 3–5 Arkadiusz Mugowski Blazej Warpas has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:44What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Mugowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Mugowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Warpas 1274 vs Mugowski 1385
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Warpas 40% vs Mugowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Warpas 40% vs Mugowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Warpas +2 · Mugowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Mugowski) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWarpas 1.95 / Mugowski 1.75
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Mugowski)+8.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12469092
Warpas1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 117 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Mugowski1.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 131 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it97% 65 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it82% 102 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeWarpas3wins
AwayMugowski5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMugowski leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWarpas66.7%2 of 3
AwayMugowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Warpas3Mugowski5n = 8Mugowski took 5 of 8
S2Warpas4Mugowski4n = 8split evenly
S3Warpas5Mugowski3n = 8Warpas took 5 of 8
S4Warpas5Mugowski2n = 7Warpas took 5 of 7
S5Warpas0Mugowski3n = 3Mugowski took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricWarpasMugowskiW − MBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match40.840.2+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWarpasMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 806 vs 957 / 208752.1%45.9%420 / 806 vs 957 / 2087Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiWarpas 1.95/Mugowski 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.7%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 21 · 08:35B. Warpas—1310111152A. Mugowski—151278113
LJul 24 · 06:55B. Warpas—89111182A. Mugowski—111189113
LJul 24 · 04:30B. Warpas—117691A. Mugowski—71111113
WMay 17 · 17:25B. Warpas—12126113A. Mugowski—10101161
WApr 18 · 14:20B. Warpas—91111113A. Mugowski—115781
WMar 5 · 17:15B. Warpas—1111113A. Mugowski—7880
LFeb 22 · 24:25B. Warpas—871191A. Mugowski—11118113
LFeb 21 · 22:05B. Warpas—71191172A. Mugowski—116118113
B. Warpas10
WAug 21 · 13:55B. Warpas1.9011136113A. Mugowski1.768111151LAug 21 · 12:40B. Warpas2.90101171292M. Minda1.351291110113LAug 21 · 11:25B. Warpas3.205860M. Misiak1.301111113LAug 21 · 10:10D. Solilo1.3711115113B. Warpas2.87991171WAug 21 · 09:25B. Warpas2.4671111123R. Stapor1.461189101WAug 21 · 06:55B. Warpas2.25114117113B. Sulkowski1.5541191192WAug 21 · 05:40B. Warpas1.661111113M. Lukaszewski2.055880LAug 21 · 04:10B. Warpas1.7411791172K. Sulkowski1.94311116113LAug 21 · 03:00B. Warpas2.858990M. Misiak1.361111113LAug 20 · 07:40B. Warpas2.408690I. Dabrowski1.471111113
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113LAug 21 · 13:55B. Warpas1.9011136113A. Mugowski1.768111151
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