TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12466020
Played Aug 21Finished
Blazej Warpas
Home
2.46
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111181191210––
Rafal Stapor
Away
1.46
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:14 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
7111181191210––
H2H Blazej Warpas 14–21 Rafal Stapor Blazej Warpas has won 14 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:14What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-21 in 35
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 7 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Warpas 1261 vs Stapor 1395
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Warpas 40% vs Stapor 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Warpas 30% vs Stapor 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Warpas -1 · Stapor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (40%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWarpas 2.46 / Stapor 1.46
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Stapor)+8.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12466020
Warpas2.46
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 117 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Stapor1.46
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 446 of 704
Up 2–0, closes it96% 220 of 230
Up 1–0, closes it83% 339 of 409
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWarpas3wins
AwayStapor7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWarpasn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStapor62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Warpas2Stapor8n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S2Warpas2Stapor8n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S3Warpas5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S4Warpas3Stapor3n = 6split evenly
S5Warpas3Stapor3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricWarpasStaporW − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.843.0−5.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWarpasStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 807 vs 603 / 105252%57.3%420 / 807 vs 603 / 1052Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporWarpas 2.46/Stapor 1.46
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.8%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Warpas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 05:40B. Warpas—9960R. Stapor—1111113
LJul 5 · 13:50B. Warpas—113111362R. Stapor—511915113
WJul 4 · 09:45B. Warpas—1111119113R. Stapor—13971182
LJun 11 · 14:40B. Warpas—6350R. Stapor—1111113
LMay 25 · 16:00B. Warpas—3121111132R. Stapor—111496153
WMay 22 · 10:05B. Warpas—971111113R. Stapor—11118652
LMay 21 · 09:20B. Warpas—11420R. Stapor—1311113
LMay 19 · 02:20B. Warpas—113147122R. Stapor—8111211143
WMay 18 · 23:55B. Warpas—11111211113R. Stapor—13514932
LMay 16 · 17:20B. Warpas—10860R. Stapor—1211113
B. Warpas10
WAug 21 · 13:55B. Warpas1.9011136113A. Mugowski1.768111151LAug 21 · 12:40B. Warpas2.90101171292M. Minda1.351291110113LAug 21 · 11:25B. Warpas3.205860M. Misiak1.301111113LAug 21 · 10:10D. Solilo1.3711115113B. Warpas2.87991171LAug 21 · 08:35B. Warpas1.951310111152A. Mugowski1.75151278113WAug 21 · 06:55B. Warpas2.25114117113B. Sulkowski1.5541191192WAug 21 · 05:40B. Warpas1.661111113M. Lukaszewski2.055880LAug 21 · 04:10B. Warpas1.7411791172K. Sulkowski1.94311116113LAug 21 · 03:00B. Warpas2.858990M. Misiak1.361111113LAug 20 · 07:40B. Warpas2.408690I. Dabrowski1.471111113
R. Stapor10
LSep 9 · 08:05P. Blocho1.6561111113R. Stapor2.02119791LSep 9 · 07:15B. Czerwinski1.8041113113R. Stapor1.911141181LSep 9 · 05:15B. Sulkowski1.8291111113R. Stapor1.90118661LSep 9 · 04:25D. Solilo1.701112113R. Stapor2.0071090WSep 9 · 03:00M. Minda1.71111171072R. Stapor2.00991112113WSep 8 · 08:10R. Stapor1.731211123A. Myszewski2.00107100LSep 8 · 06:30K. Sulkowski2.051111113R. Stapor1.656860WSep 8 · 05:40J. Glanowski1.708950R. Stapor1.911111113WSep 8 · 04:55R. Stapor1.831151110113A. Linek1.8781171272LSep 8 · 03:50R. Stapor1.49611891D. Wrobel2.3411511113
Upcoming Matches
B. Warpas
Nothing scheduled
R. Stapor1 of 1 neutral
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