TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12465280
Played Aug 21Finished
Martin Olejnik
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1214115811116211
Andrew Baggaley
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeAndrew Baggaley to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Olejnik above · Andrew Baggaley below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 91 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Andrew Baggaley at 68.8%
91 points played in total.
H2H Martin Olejnik 1–1 Andrew Baggaley Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:24What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Baggaley
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Olejnik 1920 vs Baggaley 1886
Olejnik
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olejnik 40% vs Baggaley 20%
Olejnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olejnik 50% vs Baggaley 20%
Olejnik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olejnik -1 · Baggaley +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Baggaley) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baggaley form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlejnik 2.75 / Baggaley 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Baggaley)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12465280
Olejnik2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 57 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back26% 16 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Baggaley1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOlejnik1wins
AwayBaggaley1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricOlejnikBaggaleyO − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match33.535.0−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlejnikBaggaleyBasisWin rate · lifetime459 / 828 vs 25 / 4355.4%58.1%459 / 828 vs 25 / 43Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaggaleyOlejnik 2.75/Baggaley 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Baggaley · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baggaley won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LFeb 4 · 13:00M. Olejnik—96100A. Baggaley—1111123
WJul 29 · 14:30M. Olejnik—11911113A. Baggaley—911881
M. Olejnik10
LSep 2 · 14:10M. Olejnik1.535890K. Wloczko2.381111113LSep 2 · 12:30P. Cyrnek1.8315911113M. Olejnik1.831311961LSep 2 · 11:40P. David1.7371111113M. Olejnik2.00113641WSep 2 · 10:50M. Olejnik1.4441113113K. Kolodziej2.631161161LSep 2 · 09:40M. Olejnik1.7310490M. Jadczyk2.001211113LSep 2 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.8311211113M. Olejnik1.83211671LSep 2 · 07:20M. Olejnik1.6781080K. Wloczko2.101112113LSep 2 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.80111110113M. Olejnik1.91571291WSep 2 · 04:55D. Prokopcov3.75121111192M. Olejnik1.25141184113LSep 2 · 03:25P. David1.61111111113M. Olejnik2.20713791
A. Baggaley10
WAug 21 · 15:25K. Kolodziej2.0651151162A. Baggaley1.65119118113WAug 21 · 12:30A. Grela2.63111181142A. Baggaley1.44851113113LAug 21 · 11:40J. Zandecki3.25811811113A. Baggaley1.3311611882LAug 21 · 10:00K. Wloczko5.5011911173A. Baggaley1.137119151LAug 20 · 14:10A. Baggaley1.40311991A. Abbasi2.7511811113LAug 20 · 12:30K. Petas4.5011139113A. Baggaley1.177111181LAug 20 · 11:40J. Zandecki3.751211113A. Baggaley1.2510970WAug 20 · 10:50A. Baggaley1.3611811113A. Grela3.00611881LAug 20 · 09:40A. Baggaley1.57111280M. Jadczyk2.251314113LJun 2 · 09:00D. Movileanu1.221111113A. Baggaley4.009870
Upcoming Matches
M. Olejnik
Sep 8 · 03:25M. Olejnik3.40J. Folwarski1.30—Sep 8 · 04:55M. Olejnik1.67A. Wiecek2.10—Sep 8 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.80T. Spanik1.91—Sep 8 · 07:20M. Olejnik2.00P. David1.73—Sep 8 · 08:30M. Olejnik1.67J. Kosowski2.10—Sep 8 · 09:40M. Olejnik1.53K. Wloczko2.38—Sep 8 · 10:25M. Olejnik1.50K. Kolodziej2.50—Sep 8 · 12:05M. Olejnik1.67A. Wiecek2.10—Sep 8 · 12:55M. Olejnik1.80T. Spanik1.91—Sep 8 · 13:45M. Olejnik1.67J. Kosowski2.10—
A. Baggaley
Nothing scheduled
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