TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12460103
Played Aug 20Finished
Kacper Petas
Home
4.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171311911118––
Andrew Baggaley
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:51 and never touched — 81.4% is still 81.4%
Graded at full timeAndrew Baggaley to win
81.4%
81.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Andrew Baggaley below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 81 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Andrew Baggaley at 81.4%
81 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Petas 0–2 Andrew Baggaley Kacper Petas has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:51What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Baggaley
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Petas 1956 vs Baggaley 1927
Petas
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 60% vs Baggaley 20%
Petas
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 50% vs Baggaley 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas +2 · Baggaley -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Baggaley) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baggaley form (20%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 4.50 / Baggaley 1.17
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Baggaley)-0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12460103
Petas4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 126 of 282
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 70
Baggaley1.17
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePetas0wins
AwayBaggaley2wins
Baggaley leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricPetasBaggaleyP − BBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match18.033.0−15.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasBaggaleyBasisWin rate · lifetime730 / 1382 vs 46 / 6652.8%69.7%730 / 1382 vs 46 / 66Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaggaleyPetas 4.50/Baggaley 1.17
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Baggaley · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Petas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LFeb 3 · 13:00K. Petas—7450A. Baggaley—1111113
LJan 31 · 10:35K. Petas—5870A. Baggaley—1111113
K. Petas10
WSep 1 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.731145111K. Petas2.0071111133WSep 1 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.61811571K. Petas2.2011511113WSep 1 · 12:05K. Petas1.50119116113K. Strowski2.5091161142LSep 1 · 10:25K. Petas1.50101110111K. Glazowski2.5012412133WSep 1 · 09:40K. Kolodziej1.671151271K. Petas2.10131110113LSep 1 · 08:30J. Kosowski1.7311611113K. Petas2.00911881WSep 1 · 07:20K. Petas1.501110118113J. Kuzmicz2.5081271162LSep 1 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.61118911113K. Petas2.2081111342LSep 1 · 04:55P. Cyrnek1.5711124113K. Petas2.258101191WSep 1 · 03:25D. Prokopcov3.0061170K. Petas1.361113113
A. Baggaley10
WAug 21 · 15:25K. Kolodziej2.0651151162A. Baggaley1.65119118113WAug 21 · 14:35M. Olejnik2.75121181122A. Baggaley1.40145116113WAug 21 · 12:30A. Grela2.63111181142A. Baggaley1.44851113113LAug 21 · 11:40J. Zandecki3.25811811113A. Baggaley1.3311611882LAug 21 · 10:00K. Wloczko5.5011911173A. Baggaley1.137119151LAug 20 · 14:10A. Baggaley1.40311991A. Abbasi2.7511811113LAug 20 · 11:40J. Zandecki3.751211113A. Baggaley1.2510970WAug 20 · 10:50A. Baggaley1.3611811113A. Grela3.00611881LAug 20 · 09:40A. Baggaley1.57111280M. Jadczyk2.251314113LJun 2 · 09:00D. Movileanu1.221111113A. Baggaley4.009870
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