TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12460089
Played Aug 20Finished
Andrew Baggaley
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11131214811––––
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:53 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeAndrew Baggaley to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrew Baggaley above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 69 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Andrew Baggaley at 64.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Andrew Baggaley 2–1 Marcin Jadczyk Marcin Jadczyk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:53What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Baggaley
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baggaley 1954 vs Jadczyk 1896
Baggaley
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baggaley 20% vs Jadczyk 60%
Jadczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baggaley 50% vs Jadczyk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baggaley -2 · Jadczyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Baggaley) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaggaley 1.57 / Jadczyk 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Baggaley)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12460089
Baggaley1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Jadczyk2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 147 of 316
Down 0–1, comes back29% 43 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBaggaley2wins
AwayJadczyk1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderBaggaley leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baggaley1Jadczyk2n = 3Jadczyk took 2 of 3
S2Baggaley1Jadczyk2n = 3Jadczyk took 2 of 3
S3Baggaley2Jadczyk1n = 3Baggaley took 2 of 3
S4Baggaley1Jadczyk2n = 3Jadczyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBaggaleyJadczykB − JBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.741.7+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaggaleyJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 66 vs 935 / 159069.7%58.8%46 / 66 vs 935 / 1590Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaggaleyBaggaley 1.57/Jadczyk 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Baggaley · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WFeb 3 · 14:15A. Baggaley—1011911113M. Jadczyk—12611662
WFeb 1 · 08:15A. Baggaley—125117113M. Jadczyk—101151172
LJan 31 · 09:00A. Baggaley—961141M. Jadczyk—11117113
A. Baggaley10
WAug 21 · 15:25K. Kolodziej2.0651151162A. Baggaley1.65119118113WAug 21 · 14:35M. Olejnik2.75121181122A. Baggaley1.40145116113WAug 21 · 12:30A. Grela2.63111181142A. Baggaley1.44851113113LAug 21 · 11:40J. Zandecki3.25811811113A. Baggaley1.3311611882LAug 21 · 10:00K. Wloczko5.5011911173A. Baggaley1.137119151LAug 20 · 14:10A. Baggaley1.40311991A. Abbasi2.7511811113LAug 20 · 12:30K. Petas4.5011139113A. Baggaley1.177111181LAug 20 · 11:40J. Zandecki3.751211113A. Baggaley1.2510970WAug 20 · 10:50A. Baggaley1.3611811113A. Grela3.00611881LJun 2 · 09:00D. Movileanu1.221111113A. Baggaley4.009870
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 07:45S. Dosz2.38891161M. Jadczyk1.5311116113
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