TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12460077
Played Aug 20Finished
Andrew Baggaley
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116811118118––
Artur Grela
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:53 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeAndrew Baggaley to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrew Baggaley above · Artur Grela below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Andrew Baggaley at 68.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Andrew Baggaley 1–1 Artur Grela Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:53What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Baggaley
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Baggaley 1927 vs Grela 1871
Baggaley
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baggaley 20% vs Grela 40%
Grela
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baggaley 40% vs Grela 60%
Grela
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baggaley -3 · Grela +1
Baggaley
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Baggaley)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baggaley form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaggaley 1.36 / Grela 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Baggaley)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12460077
Baggaley1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Grela3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 140 of 295
Down 0–1, comes back29% 47 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBaggaley1wins
AwayGrela1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBaggaleyGrelaB − GBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match48.043.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaggaleyGrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 66 vs 611 / 122069.7%50.1%46 / 66 vs 611 / 1220Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaggaleyBaggaley 1.36/Grela 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Baggaley · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baggaley won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LDec 4 · 13:00A. Baggaley—411118132A. Grela—114211153
WOct 13 · 12:00A. Baggaley—118811113A. Grela—81111492
A. Baggaley10
WAug 21 · 15:25K. Kolodziej2.0651151162A. Baggaley1.65119118113WAug 21 · 14:35M. Olejnik2.75121181122A. Baggaley1.40145116113WAug 21 · 12:30A. Grela2.63111181142A. Baggaley1.44851113113LAug 21 · 11:40J. Zandecki3.25811811113A. Baggaley1.3311611882LAug 21 · 10:00K. Wloczko5.5011911173A. Baggaley1.137119151LAug 20 · 14:10A. Baggaley1.40311991A. Abbasi2.7511811113LAug 20 · 12:30K. Petas4.5011139113A. Baggaley1.177111181LAug 20 · 11:40J. Zandecki3.751211113A. Baggaley1.2510970LAug 20 · 09:40A. Baggaley1.57111280M. Jadczyk2.251314113LJun 2 · 09:00D. Movileanu1.221111113A. Baggaley4.009870
A. Grela10
LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela1.8081141182S. Kolasa1.91117116113LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela1.3011611982M. Domin3.40911611113WSep 5 · 05:40A. Grela1.3081111123S. Sporek3.401167101WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151LAug 21 · 12:30A. Grela2.63111181142A. Baggaley1.44851113113
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