TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12449605
Played Aug 18Finished
Lubos Forman
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114811711114117
Milan Vrabec
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:33 and never touched — 68.0% is still 68.0%
Graded at full timeLubos Forman to win
68.0%
68.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLubos Forman above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 85 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Lubos Forman at 68.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Lubos Forman 12–5 Milan Vrabec Milan Vrabec has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:33What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Forman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-5 in 17
Forman
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Forman 1158 vs Vrabec 1140
Forman
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Forman 20% vs Vrabec 60%
Vrabec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Forman 50% vs Vrabec 70%
Vrabec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Forman +1 · Vrabec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Forman) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsForman 1.25 / Vrabec 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Forman)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12449605
Forman1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 33 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Vrabec3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 23 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back10% 6 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeForman7wins
AwayVrabec3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderForman leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeForman100%7 of 7
AwayVrabec100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Forman7Vrabec3n = 10Forman took 7 of 10
S2Forman6Vrabec4n = 10Forman took 6 of 10
S3Forman8Vrabec2n = 10Forman took 8 of 10
S4Forman2Vrabec2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFormanVrabecF − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.228.6+7.6per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFormanVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 396 vs 167 / 33450.5%50%200 / 396 vs 167 / 334Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FormanForman 1.25/Vrabec 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Forman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Forman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 07:00L. Forman—118711113M. Vrabec—41111472
WJun 16 · 08:30L. Forman—1212113M. Vrabec—101060
WJun 9 · 06:30L. Forman—1111113M. Vrabec—5490
LMay 19 · 08:58L. Forman—81170M. Vrabec—1113113
WMay 19 · 08:00L. Forman—1111113M. Vrabec—2980
WMay 11 · 07:30L. Forman—1111113M. Vrabec—9220
WApr 29 · 08:00L. Forman—1112113M. Vrabec—71090
WApr 13 · 08:58L. Forman—11911113M. Vrabec—711261
LApr 13 · 08:30L. Forman—011118102M. Vrabec—116411123
LMar 25 · 07:30L. Forman—7111191M. Vrabec—11137113
L. Forman10
LSep 2 · 09:28L. Forman1.80812117102J. Svec1.911110711123WSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 07:30L. Forman1.91711118102J. Svec1.80116711123WSep 2 · 06:30J. Grohsgott2.104930L. Forman1.671111113WAug 25 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.839760L. Forman1.831111113LAug 25 · 08:30L. Forman1.30113131292M. Vrabec3.404111510113LAug 25 · 07:00L. Forman1.3671314352V. Stach3.0011111211113WAug 25 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.6197111152L. Forman2.20111177113LAug 18 · 09:30A. Hejduk1.4471211113L. Forman2.631110731LAug 18 · 08:30L. Forman2.6361111792A. Hejduk1.44116411113
M. Vrabec10
LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113LSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113WAug 25 · 08:30L. Forman1.30113131292M. Vrabec3.404111510113
Upcoming Matches
L. Forman
Nothing scheduled
M. Vrabec
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