TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12444264
Played Aug 17Finished
Jaromir Cernik
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1412115811711411
Martin Bohac
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Bohac to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · Martin Bohac below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 94 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Martin Bohac at 56.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 7–5 Martin Bohac Martin Bohac has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Bohac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1160 vs Bohac 1261
Bohac
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 40% vs Bohac 20%
Cernik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 40% vs Bohac 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik +1 · Bohac +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Bohac) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bohac form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 2.20 / Bohac 1.61
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Bohac)-1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12444264
Cernik2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 44 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62
Bohac1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 17 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik5wins
AwayBohac5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik50%2 of 4
AwayBohac50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik4Bohac6n = 10Bohac took 6 of 10
S2Cernik4Bohac6n = 10Bohac took 6 of 10
S3Cernik8Bohac2n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10
S4Cernik3Bohac7n = 10Bohac took 7 of 10
S5Cernik3Bohac2n = 5Cernik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikBohacC − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.244.5−3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikBohacBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 794 vs 78 / 14646.5%53.4%369 / 794 vs 78 / 146Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BohacCernik 2.20/Bohac 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.7%
Bohac · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bohac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 09:30J. Cernik—811541M. Bohac—11911113
LAug 17 · 07:30J. Cernik—14118742M. Bohac—1251111113
WOct 10 · 01:30J. Cernik—21311113M. Bohac—1111721
WSep 13 · 06:30J. Cernik—125129123M. Bohac—10111011102
WSep 6 · 13:30J. Cernik—1112119113M. Bohac—91491192
WSep 6 · 10:30J. Cernik—81411113M. Bohac—1112951
LSep 6 · 09:30J. Cernik—6911101M. Bohac—11119123
LSep 6 · 07:00J. Cernik—124113102M. Bohac—1011811123
WJun 1 · 07:30J. Cernik—271113123M. Bohac—1111411102
LMay 7 · 10:30J. Cernik—971171M. Bohac—11116113
J. Cernik10
LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850WSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891
M. Bohac10
LAug 21 · 13:30M. Bohac1.738860M. Chalupnicek2.001111113WAug 21 · 12:00M. Bohac2.1061111113M. Chalupnicek1.67119891WAug 21 · 11:30J. Grohsgott3.007121161M. Bohac1.3611147113LAug 21 · 10:00M. Bohac1.5767111192M. Lubas2.25111156113WAug 19 · 09:03L. Havel1.36971171M. Bohac3.0011118113WAug 19 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.5381191252M. Bohac2.381191110113LAug 19 · 07:30M. Bohac2.758580L. Havel1.401111113LAug 19 · 06:30M. Regner1.501311113M. Bohac2.5011880WAug 17 · 09:30M. Bohac1.6111911113J. Cernik2.20811541WAug 17 · 08:00M. Bohac1.2851111113T. Kucera3.50119941
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