TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12465639
Played Aug 21Finished
Martin Bohac
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611119118119––
Milan Chalupnicek
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:54 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeMilan Chalupnicek to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Bohac above · Milan Chalupnicek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Milan Chalupnicek at 62.2%
76 points played in total.
H2H Martin Bohac 2–4 Milan Chalupnicek Martin Bohac has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:54What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chalupnicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Chalupnicek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bohac 1259 vs Chalupnicek 1321
Chalupnicek
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bohac 60% vs Chalupnicek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bohac 70% vs Chalupnicek 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bohac +1 · Chalupnicek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Chalupnicek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bohac form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBohac 2.10 / Chalupnicek 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Chalupnicek)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12465639
Bohac2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog25% won 4 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Chalupnicek1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBohac2wins
AwayChalupnicek4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderChalupnicek leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBohacn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChalupnicek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bohac2Chalupnicek4n = 6Chalupnicek took 4 of 6
S2Bohac2Chalupnicek4n = 6Chalupnicek took 4 of 6
S3Bohac2Chalupnicek4n = 6Chalupnicek took 4 of 6
S4Bohac1Chalupnicek3n = 4Chalupnicek took 3 of 4
S5Bohac2Chalupnicek1n = 3Bohac took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricBohacChalupnicekB − CBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match37.541.8−4.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBohacChalupnicekBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 152 vs 332 / 66553.3%49.9%81 / 152 vs 332 / 665Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupnicekBohac 2.10/Chalupnicek 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.8%
Chalupnicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bohac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 19 · 08:30M. Bohac—1191110113M. Chalupnicek—81191252
LMay 1 · 11:00M. Bohac—9680M. Chalupnicek—1111113
WNov 14 · 18:30M. Bohac—911114113M. Chalupnicek—11891172
LNov 14 · 17:00M. Bohac—126981M. Chalupnicek—101111113
LJul 25 · 09:30M. Bohac—711611102M. Chalupnicek—117117123
LJul 25 · 08:30M. Bohac—12840M. Chalupnicek—1411113
M. Bohac10
LAug 21 · 13:30M. Bohac1.738860M. Chalupnicek2.001111113WAug 21 · 11:30J. Grohsgott3.007121161M. Bohac1.3611147113LAug 21 · 10:00M. Bohac1.5767111192M. Lubas2.25111156113WAug 19 · 09:03L. Havel1.36971171M. Bohac3.0011118113WAug 19 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.5381191252M. Bohac2.381191110113LAug 19 · 07:30M. Bohac2.758580L. Havel1.401111113LAug 19 · 06:30M. Regner1.501311113M. Bohac2.5011880WAug 17 · 09:30M. Bohac1.6111911113J. Cernik2.20811541WAug 17 · 08:00M. Bohac1.2851111113T. Kucera3.50119941WAug 17 · 07:30J. Cernik2.2014118742M. Bohac1.611251111113
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752WSep 4 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek1.801111113P. Kulhanek1.916960LSep 4 · 10:30Z. Drabek2.10114611123M. Chalupnicek1.67511115102WAug 21 · 13:30M. Bohac1.738860M. Chalupnicek2.001111113LAug 19 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.5381191252M. Bohac2.381191110113
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M. Chalupnicek
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