TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12443919
Played Aug 16Finished
Michal Sokol
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1179111012711––
Jan Kabelka
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:32 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Sokol to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Sokol above · Jan Kabelka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Michal Sokol at 66.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Michal Sokol 1–0 Jan Kabelka Jan Kabelka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:32What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Sokol
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sokol 1522 vs Kabelka 1482
Sokol
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokol 60% vs Kabelka 40%
Sokol
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokol 60% vs Kabelka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokol +1 · Kabelka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Sokol)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokol form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokol 1.40 / Kabelka 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Sokol)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12443919
Sokol1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 11 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Kabelka2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 44 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSokol1wins
AwayKabelka0wins
Sokol leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSokolKabelkaS − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.039.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolKabelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 106 vs 115 / 23652.8%48.7%56 / 106 vs 115 / 236Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SokolSokol 1.40/Kabelka 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Sokol · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kabelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 6 · 18:35M. Sokol—111210113J. Kabelka—9101281
M. Sokol10
LAug 23 · 21:05M. Sokol—371181M. Flesar—11119113LAug 23 · 20:05M. Sokol1.9173111582L. Vosyka1.801111813113WAug 23 · 19:05M. Sokol1.401111113M. Flesar2.755870LAug 23 · 18:05M. Sokol1.61811921M. Chmelicek2.2011611113LAug 16 · 21:44M. Sokol1.405890M. Chmelicek2.751111113WAug 16 · 20:05M. Sokol2.00871111113L. Vosyka1.7311116482WAug 16 · 18:05M. Sokol1.4411117113M. Chmelicek2.63791181LAug 13 · 13:33M. Holub1.671111113M. Sokol2.106640WAug 13 · 12:35M. Sokol1.501111113M. Flesar2.507640WAug 13 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.73111191092M. Sokol2.00751112113
J. Kabelka10
WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551WSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720WSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180LSep 2 · 21:18M. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7341180LSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133LSep 2 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.8011211632M. Rojka1.91611311113LSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113
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