TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12443878
Played Aug 16Finished
Michal Sokol
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117119711118––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:24 and never touched — 67.8% is still 67.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Sokol to win
67.8%
67.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Sokol above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Sokol at 67.8%
75 points played in total.
H2H Michal Sokol 1–0 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sokol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sokol 1518 vs Chmelicek 1256
Sokol
Correct
both rated, 262 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokol 60% vs Chmelicek 20%
Sokol
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokol 50% vs Chmelicek 20%
Sokol
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokol -1 · Chmelicek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Sokol) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokol 1.44 / Chmelicek 2.63
Signal prob.72% / 29%
Edge (Sokol)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12443878
Sokol1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 11 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Chmelicek2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back10% 7 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSokol1wins
AwayChmelicek0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSokol leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSokolChmelicekS − CBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match55.046.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 105 vs 188 / 41252.4%45.6%55 / 105 vs 188 / 412Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SokolSokol 1.44/Chmelicek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.5%
Sokol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sokol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMar 31 · 19:35M. Sokol—7111211143M. Chmelicek—116143122
M. Sokol10
LAug 23 · 21:05M. Sokol—371181M. Flesar—11119113LAug 23 · 20:05M. Sokol1.9173111582L. Vosyka1.801111813113WAug 23 · 19:05M. Sokol1.401111113M. Flesar2.755870LAug 23 · 18:05M. Sokol1.61811921M. Chmelicek2.2011611113LAug 16 · 21:44M. Sokol1.405890M. Chmelicek2.751111113WAug 16 · 20:05M. Sokol2.00871111113L. Vosyka1.7311116482LAug 16 · 19:05M. Sokol1.401191071J. Kabelka2.7571112113LAug 13 · 13:33M. Holub1.671111113M. Sokol2.106640WAug 13 · 12:35M. Sokol1.501111113M. Flesar2.507640WAug 13 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.73111191092M. Sokol2.00751112113
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971WSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113WSep 9 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2.00111011113M. Rojka1.73612591LSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592LSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570WAug 23 · 18:05M. Sokol1.61811921M. Chmelicek2.2011611113WAug 16 · 21:44M. Sokol1.405890M. Chmelicek2.751111113
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