TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12416476
Played Aug 13Finished
Michal Sokol
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116114––––
Milan Flesar
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:50 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Sokol to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Sokol above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 50 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Michal Sokol at 65.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Michal Sokol 5–2 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:50What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sokol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Sokol
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokol 1520 vs Flesar 1411
Sokol
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokol 60% vs Flesar 0%
Sokol
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokol 60% vs Flesar 10%
Sokol
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokol +1 · Flesar -5
Flesar
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Sokol) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokol 1.50 / Flesar 2.50
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Sokol)+5.0pp
TT Cup · #12416476
Sokol1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 10 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it70% 7 of 10
Flesar2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog44% won 30 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back27% 11 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSokol5wins
AwayFlesar2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSokol leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokol100%4 of 4
AwayFlesarn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokol4Flesar2n = 6Sokol took 4 of 6
S2Sokol4Flesar2n = 6Sokol took 4 of 6
S3Sokol3Flesar3n = 6split evenly
S4Sokol3Flesar2n = 5Sokol took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSokolFlesarS − FBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.734.8+5.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime54 / 103 vs 179 / 34152.4%52.5%54 / 103 vs 179 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SokolSokol 1.50/Flesar 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Sokol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sokol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 11 · 13:10M. Sokol—131257113M. Flesar—1110111142
WAug 11 · 11:35M. Sokol—1111113M. Flesar—8670
WAug 6 · 21:48M. Sokol—11311113M. Flesar—511271
LAug 6 · 20:05M. Sokol—97111192M. Flesar—111178113
LJul 28 · 18:35M. Sokol—8119101M. Flesar—11911123
WApr 22 · 18:35M. Sokol—11119113M. Flesar—731141
M. Sokol10
LAug 23 · 21:05M. Sokol—371181M. Flesar—11119113LAug 23 · 20:05M. Sokol1.9173111582L. Vosyka1.801111813113WAug 23 · 19:05M. Sokol1.401111113M. Flesar2.755870LAug 23 · 18:05M. Sokol1.61811921M. Chmelicek2.2011611113LAug 16 · 21:44M. Sokol1.405890M. Chmelicek2.751111113WAug 16 · 20:05M. Sokol2.00871111113L. Vosyka1.7311116482LAug 16 · 19:05M. Sokol1.401191071J. Kabelka2.7571112113WAug 16 · 18:05M. Sokol1.4411117113M. Chmelicek2.63791181LAug 13 · 13:33M. Holub1.671111113M. Sokol2.106640WAug 13 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.73111191092M. Sokol2.00751112113
M. Flesar10
WSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670LSep 9 · 21:35J. Martin1.4011119113M. Flesar2.75551181WSep 9 · 20:05M. Flesar2.0011911113J. Vidourek1.73811881WSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641LSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113LSep 8 · 21:33M. Flesar2.0051111942L. Vosyka1.73119411113WSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.8331111113M. Flesar1.83118691WAug 23 · 21:05M. Sokol—371181M. Flesar—11119113LAug 23 · 19:05M. Sokol1.401111113M. Flesar2.755870
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