TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12479142
Played Aug 23Finished
Michal Sokol
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811116911211––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:41 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Sokol above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 69 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 56.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Michal Sokol 2–0 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:41What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sokol
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sokol 1510 vs Chmelicek 1411
Sokol
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokol 40% vs Chmelicek 60%
Chmelicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokol 50% vs Chmelicek 70%
Chmelicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokol -1 · Chmelicek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Sokol) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokol 1.61 / Chmelicek 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Sokol)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #12479142
Sokol1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 12 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it69% 9 of 13
Chmelicek2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 51 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back11% 8 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSokol2wins
AwayChmelicek0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderSokol leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSokolChmelicekS − CBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match47.540.5+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 109 vs 200 / 42852.3%46.7%57 / 109 vs 200 / 428Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SokolSokol 1.61/Chmelicek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Sokol · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 16 · 18:05M. Sokol—11117113M. Chmelicek—791181
WMar 31 · 19:35M. Sokol—7111211143M. Chmelicek—116143122
M. Sokol10
LAug 23 · 21:05M. Sokol—371181M. Flesar—11119113LAug 23 · 20:05M. Sokol1.9173111582L. Vosyka1.801111813113WAug 23 · 19:05M. Sokol1.401111113M. Flesar2.755870LAug 16 · 21:44M. Sokol1.405890M. Chmelicek2.751111113WAug 16 · 20:05M. Sokol2.00871111113L. Vosyka1.7311116482LAug 16 · 19:05M. Sokol1.401191071J. Kabelka2.7571112113WAug 16 · 18:05M. Sokol1.4411117113M. Chmelicek2.63791181LAug 13 · 13:33M. Holub1.671111113M. Sokol2.106640WAug 13 · 12:35M. Sokol1.501111113M. Flesar2.507640WAug 13 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.73111191092M. Sokol2.00751112113
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971WSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113WSep 9 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2.00111011113M. Rojka1.73612591LSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592LSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570WAug 16 · 21:44M. Sokol1.405890M. Chmelicek2.751111113LAug 16 · 18:05M. Sokol1.4411117113M. Chmelicek2.63791181
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