TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12434158
Played Aug 15Finished
Mihail Trinta
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91110121161311118
David Horak
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:31 and never touched — 71.3% is still 71.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Horak to win
71.3%
71.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMihail Trinta above · David Horak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 102 set 5, 11-8 — our read held David Horak at 71.3%
102 points played in total.
H2H Mihail Trinta 9–31 David Horak Mihail Trinta has won 9 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Horak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-31 in 40
Horak
Wrong
gap of 22 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trinta 1406 vs Horak 1444
Horak
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trinta 20% vs Horak 60%
Horak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trinta 30% vs Horak 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trinta +1 · Horak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Horak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trinta form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrinta 2.50 / Horak 1.50
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Horak)+8.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12434158
Trinta2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 81 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back27% 27 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Horak1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 132 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it95% 71 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it80% 98 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrinta3wins
AwayHorak7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderHorak leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrinta33.3%2 of 6
AwayHorak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trinta6Horak4n = 10Trinta took 6 of 10
S2Trinta7Horak3n = 10Trinta took 7 of 10
S3Trinta7Horak3n = 10Trinta took 7 of 10
S4Trinta1Horak8n = 9Horak took 8 of 9
S5Trinta1Horak6n = 7Horak took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrintaHorakT − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.644.8−2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrintaHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime511 / 1024 vs 274 / 51449.9%53.3%511 / 1024 vs 274 / 514Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakTrinta 2.50/Horak 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.3%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Trinta won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 17:29M. Trinta—61111113D. Horak—116991
LAug 7 · 16:00M. Trinta—121177142D. Horak—1051111163
LAug 6 · 16:59M. Trinta—71111992D. Horak—119611113
WAug 6 · 14:00M. Trinta—1111113D. Horak—7370
LAug 4 · 19:30M. Trinta—111244122D. Horak—6101111143
LAug 4 · 15:00M. Trinta—11116722D. Horak—851111113
LAug 1 · 10:30M. Trinta—13815692D. Horak—11111311113
WJul 31 · 15:00M. Trinta—128126113D. Horak—1011101182
LJul 19 · 14:00M. Trinta—91112792D. Horak—1171011113
LJul 18 · 24:30M. Trinta—551171D. Horak—11117113
M. Trinta10
WAug 16 · 12:59M. Trinta1.911111103F. Jungman1.809980LAug 16 · 12:30M. Trinta2.0051111762T. Kolenic1.73119911113LAug 16 · 11:00M. Trinta2.00913961D. Oborny1.73111111113WAug 16 · 10:00F. Jungman1.44511118112M. Trinta2.63119611133LAug 15 · 21:30A. Svoboda1.4411711123M. Trinta2.639112101WAug 15 · 19:00M. Trinta1.80911611113F. Briza1.9111911892LAug 15 · 18:00A. Svoboda1.531111113M. Trinta2.387460LAug 14 · 13:00A. Svoboda1.3311115113M. Trinta3.05461171LAug 14 · 12:30M. Trinta2.0012511652T. Kolenic1.731011711113LAug 14 · 11:00M. Trinta2.10961131A. Svoboda1.6711119113
D. Horak10
LSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 01:30D. Horak2.50116971Y. Holovatiuk1.5071111113WSep 5 · 24:30R. Bartunek2.75114110D. Horak1.401311133LSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:30D. Horak1.801011691K. Darin1.9112811113LSep 4 · 17:30Y. Holovatiuk1.571111113D. Horak2.259470WSep 4 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk1.6751181182D. Horak2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:00K. Darin1.917911101D. Horak1.8011118123LSep 4 · 14:30D. Horak2.50117961M. Placek1.5071111113LSep 2 · 17:06D. Horak2.40101040M. Kolar1.511212113
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