TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12434155
Played Aug 15Finished
Adam Svoboda
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114116––––
Mihail Trinta
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:32 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Mihail Trinta below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 50 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 64.8%
50 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 7–4 Mihail Trinta Mihail Trinta has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:32What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1404 vs Trinta 1424
Trinta
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 40% vs Trinta 0%
Svoboda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 30% vs Trinta 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -3 · Trinta -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trinta form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.53 / Trinta 2.38
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Svoboda)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12434155
Svoboda1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 39 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Trinta2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 81 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back27% 27 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda6wins
AwayTrinta4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda80%4 of 5
AwayTrinta60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda5Trinta5n = 10split evenly
S2Svoboda8Trinta2n = 10Svoboda took 8 of 10
S3Svoboda5Trinta5n = 10split evenly
S4Svoboda5Trinta3n = 8Svoboda took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaTrintaS − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.633.7+4.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaTrintaBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 200 vs 510 / 102251%49.9%102 / 200 vs 510 / 1022Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.53/Trinta 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 13:00A. Svoboda—11115113M. Trinta—461171
WAug 14 · 11:00A. Svoboda—11119113M. Trinta—961131
WJul 26 · 03:00A. Svoboda—81212113M. Trinta—11101011
LJul 26 · 24:00A. Svoboda—861191M. Trinta—11115113
LJul 18 · 02:00A. Svoboda—711971M. Trinta—11811113
WJul 17 · 21:30A. Svoboda—1111113M. Trinta—9870
WJul 17 · 18:00A. Svoboda—91111163M. Trinta—1149141
WJan 3 · 03:30A. Svoboda—1211113M. Trinta—10930
LDec 20 · 03:00A. Svoboda—119571M. Trinta—51111113
LDec 6 · 03:58A. Svoboda—91191192M. Trinta—116118113
A. Svoboda10
WSep 7 · 03:28A. Svoboda1.531112113R. Hasmanda2.3821090WSep 7 · 02:30A. Svoboda1.731312113R. Hasmanda2.00111030WSep 7 · 01:30M. Novak2.00137111192A. Svoboda1.73151196113WSep 7 · 24:00A. Svoboda2.001111123P. Bruzek1.7368100WSep 6 · 23:00L. Sulava2.636450A. Svoboda1.441111113WSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:00A. Svoboda2.38111112392F. Briza1.53661411113WSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:00A. Svoboda1.8391111662J. Novotny1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862
M. Trinta10
WAug 16 · 12:59M. Trinta1.911111103F. Jungman1.809980LAug 16 · 12:30M. Trinta2.0051111762T. Kolenic1.73119911113LAug 16 · 11:00M. Trinta2.00913961D. Oborny1.73111111113WAug 16 · 10:00F. Jungman1.44511118112M. Trinta2.63119611133LAug 15 · 21:30A. Svoboda1.4411711123M. Trinta2.639112101WAug 15 · 20:30M. Trinta2.509101113113D. Horak1.50111261182WAug 15 · 19:00M. Trinta1.80911611113F. Briza1.9111911892LAug 14 · 13:00A. Svoboda1.3311115113M. Trinta3.05461171LAug 14 · 12:30M. Trinta2.0012511652T. Kolenic1.731011711113LAug 14 · 11:00M. Trinta2.10961131A. Svoboda1.6711119113
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