TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Damian Zech vs Manuel Kupfer 3-2 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Aug 13Finished
Damian Zech
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012811115113117
Manuel Kupfer
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDamian Zech to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDamian Zech above · Manuel Kupfer below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Damian Zech at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Damian Zech 2–1 Manuel Kupfer Manuel Kupfer has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:46What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zech
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zech 1422 vs Kupfer 1152
Zech
Correct
both rated, 271 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 40% vs Kupfer 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 40% vs Kupfer 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech +2 · Kupfer -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Zech) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zech form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 1.57 / Kupfer 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Zech)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12412206
Zech1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kupfer2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeZech2wins
AwayKupfer1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderZech leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zech1Kupfer2n = 3Kupfer took 2 of 3
S2Zech1Kupfer2n = 3Kupfer took 2 of 3
S3Zech3Kupfer0n = 3Zech took 3 of 3
S4Zech2Kupfer1n = 3Zech took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricZechKupferZ − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match48.036.7+11.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechKupferBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 215 vs 7 / 4227%16.7%58 / 215 vs 7 / 42Avg sets wonper match1.41.2per matchAvg pointsper match32.830.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZechZech 1.57/Kupfer 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Zech · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zech won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 13 · 07:30D. Zech511081111113M. Kupfer3812115372
LSep 11 · 10:30D. Zech521191111102M. Kupfer43511213123
WJul 24 · 10:30D. Zech4181111113M. Kupfer29117381
D. Zech10
LSep 18 · 07:30D. Zech2.754640J. Loffler1.371111113LSep 17 · 16:30D. Zech6.00101090L. Qiu1.111212113LSep 17 · 14:30D. Zech7.0011490M. Scharrer1.081311113WSep 17 · 12:30E. Mendes1.1055111192D. Zech6.50111169113LSep 17 · 10:30D. Rinderer1.051111113D. Zech8.505950LSep 17 · 09:00D. Zech2.7511871172K. Zimmermann1.40911118113LSep 17 · 07:30D. Zech1.80814111112J. Harencak1.911112119133WSep 11 · 07:30D. Zech1.20101115113S. Amann4.331231341WSep 10 · 16:30D. Zech2.0011513113K. Moosmann1.737111161WSep 10 · 14:30D. Zech2.2511513113M. Bott1.579111181
M. Kupfer10
WAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113LAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950LAug 24 · 15:30M. Kupfer—131148102E. Huzsvar—1151111123LAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860LAug 24 · 07:30M. Henninger1.0811111011163M. Kupfer7.00713126142LAug 14 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.0211117113M. Kupfer10.50821171LAug 13 · 17:00O. Kosolosky1.051111113M. Kupfer8.507570LAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113
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