TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13141662
Played Sep 17Finished
Damian Zech
Home
7.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113411911––––
Mauro Scharrer
Away
1.08
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:36 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMauro Scharrer to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDamian Zech above · Mauro Scharrer below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Mauro Scharrer at 63.6%
59 points played in total.
H2H Damian Zech 1–6 Mauro Scharrer Damian Zech has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:36What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Scharrer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Scharrer
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zech 1419 vs Scharrer 1594
Scharrer
Correct
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 40% vs Scharrer 20%
Zech
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 50% vs Scharrer 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech +1 · Scharrer +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Scharrer) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Scharrer form (20%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 7.00 / Scharrer 1.08
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Scharrer)+1.6pp
Challenger Series TT · #13141662
Zech7.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 4 of 8
As underdog20% won 15 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Scharrer1.08
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 13 of 18
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZech1wins
AwayScharrer6wins
3 of 7 to a deciderScharrer leads 6–1, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZech33.3%1 of 3
AwayScharrer100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zech3Scharrer3n = 6split evenly
S2Zech2Scharrer4n = 6Scharrer took 4 of 6
S3Zech2Scharrer4n = 6Scharrer took 4 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricZechScharrerZ − SBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match30.237.7−7.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechScharrerBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 217 vs 27 / 5327.7%50.9%60 / 217 vs 27 / 53Avg sets wonper match1.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match32.735.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ScharrerZech 7.00/Scharrer 1.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.2%
Scharrer · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Scharrer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJun 19 · 09:30D. Zech258980M. Scharrer331111113
LMay 15 · 10:40D. Zech165470M. Scharrer331111113
LMay 14 · 13:30D. Zech4812912782M. Scharrer5310111011113
LApr 30 · 16:30D. Zech94410M. Scharrer331111113
WOct 2 · 11:00D. Zech341112113M. Scharrer2571080
LJun 5 · 14:30D. Zech4912119982M. Scharrer491061111113
D. Zech10
WSep 17 · 12:30E. Mendes1.1055111192D. Zech6.50111169113LSep 17 · 10:30D. Rinderer1.051111113D. Zech8.505950LSep 17 · 09:00D. Zech2.7511871172K. Zimmermann1.40911118113LSep 17 · 07:30D. Zech1.80814111112J. Harencak1.911112119133WSep 11 · 07:30D. Zech1.20101115113S. Amann4.331231341WSep 10 · 16:30D. Zech2.0011513113K. Moosmann1.737111161WSep 10 · 14:30D. Zech2.2511513113M. Bott1.579111181WSep 10 · 12:30T. Pellny1.142D. Zech5.003LSep 10 · 10:30D. Cheaib1.0211711113D. Zech10.50711331LSep 10 · 09:40D. Zech—1M. Stefanidis—3
M. Scharrer10
WSep 17 · 13:00J. Harencak6.50951291M. Scharrer1.10111110113LSep 17 · 11:00E. Mendes1.5311611113M. Scharrer2.38811651LSep 17 · 10:00L. Qiu1.531211113M. Scharrer2.3810770LSep 17 · 06:30D. Rinderer1.611111123M. Scharrer2.2047100LAug 20 · 15:40C. Cozmolici4.3311115123M. Scharrer1.206911101WAug 20 · 08:35E. Le1.251210114102M. Scharrer3.751012811123WJun 19 · 10:37M. Scharrer2.001211113L. Kraus1.7310870WJun 19 · 09:30M. Scharrer1.081111113D. Zech7.008980LJun 19 · 09:14I. Bertrand1.141111113M. Scharrer5.005870WJun 19 · 06:30M. Scharrer1.1411711113S. Happek5.00411931
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