TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12403764
Played Aug 11Finished
Kiejda Patryk
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181151012115––
Jaroslaw Ubik
Away
3.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:52 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeKiejda Patryk to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
1181151012115––
H2H Kiejda Patryk 5–2 Jaroslaw Ubik Jaroslaw Ubik has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (73%)
Patryk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Patryk
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Patryk 1507 vs Ubik 1357
Patryk
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Patryk 100% vs Ubik 60%
Patryk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Patryk 60% vs Ubik 40%
Patryk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Patryk +5 · Ubik +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Patryk) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ubik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (30%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPatryk 1.25 / Ubik 3.30
Signal prob.83% / 18%
Edge (Patryk)+10.0pp
TT Cup · #12403764
Patryk1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 56 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it82% 45 of 55
Ubik3.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 11 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePatryk5wins
AwayUbik2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderPatryk leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePatryk100%5 of 5
AwayUbikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Patryk5Ubik2n = 7Patryk took 5 of 7
S2Patryk5Ubik2n = 7Patryk took 5 of 7
S3Patryk6Ubik1n = 7Patryk took 6 of 7
S4Patryk2Ubik1n = 3Patryk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home457%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricPatrykUbikP − UBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match36.729.6+7.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPatrykUbikBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 241 vs 22 / 7155.6%31%134 / 241 vs 22 / 71Avg sets wonper match2.21.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.331.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PatrykPatryk 1.25/Ubik 3.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.5%
Patryk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Patryk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 11 · 05:30K. Patryk—111011113J. Ubik—912871
LAug 10 · 21:00K. Patryk—511651J. Ubik—11911113
WAug 9 · 16:35K. Patryk—1111133J. Ubik—77110
WJul 28 · 21:00K. Patryk—1111113J. Ubik—4570
WJul 27 · 21:30K. Patryk—1111113J. Ubik—6550
LJul 27 · 17:00K. Patryk—1091111102J. Ubik—121172123
WJul 26 · 22:05K. Patryk—1112123J. Ubik—810100
K. Patryk10
LSep 7 · 20:00K. Patryk—1175131W. Dariusz—61111153LSep 7 · 18:30K. Patryk1.82411561P. Odelski1.8811611113WSep 7 · 17:00K. Patryk1.5711118113L. Buklat2.25891171LSep 7 · 15:00K. Patryk1.50614551K. Kos2.30111211113WSep 7 · 14:00K. Patryk1.601091711113W. Arkadiusz2.10121115892WSep 2 · 22:10L. Buklat2.1599110K. Patryk1.611111133LSep 2 · 21:00L. Buklat2.1581311133K. Patryk1.5811116111LSep 2 · 19:30K. Patryk1.5781170W. Arkadiusz2.171113113LSep 2 · 17:30P. Odelski2.00891112113K. Patryk1.72111191032WSep 2 · 15:00P. Kamil2.20471231K. Patryk1.58111110113
J. Ubik10
WAug 11 · 11:00W. Arkadiusz1.447970J. Ubik2.471111113WAug 11 · 10:00J. Ubik2.151313113J. Komorowicz1.62111180WAug 11 · 09:00J. Ubik2.1011611113P. Kamil1.66611951LAug 11 · 07:30J. Ubik2.348610P. Odelski1.491111113LAug 11 · 05:30J. Ubik2.23912871K. Patryk1.53111011113LAug 10 · 22:10W. Arkadiusz1.611111113J. Ubik2.208990WAug 10 · 21:00K. Patryk1.75511651J. Ubik1.9511911113LAug 10 · 19:30J. Ubik1.90671181P. Kamil1.8011119113LAug 10 · 17:30W. Arkadiusz1.5311611113J. Ubik2.35611351LAug 10 · 15:30K. Kos1.42781111113J. Ubik2.5011113482
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