TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12399870
Played Aug 11Finished
Jaroslaw Ubik
Home
2.23
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111210811711––
Kiejda Patryk
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:22 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeKiejda Patryk to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
9111210811711––
H2H Jaroslaw Ubik 2–4 Kiejda Patryk Jaroslaw Ubik has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (59%)
Patryk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Patryk
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ubik 1323 vs Patryk 1460
Patryk
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ubik 20% vs Patryk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ubik 30% vs Patryk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ubik -1 · Patryk -3
Patryk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Patryk) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Patryk form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUbik 2.23 / Patryk 1.53
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Patryk)+10.0pp
TT Cup · #12399870
Ubik2.23
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 11 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Patryk1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 56 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it82% 45 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeUbik2wins
AwayPatryk4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderPatryk leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUbikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPatryk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ubik2Patryk4n = 6Patryk took 4 of 6
S2Ubik1Patryk5n = 6Patryk took 5 of 6
S3Ubik1Patryk5n = 6Patryk took 5 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away467%
These 6 meetings
MetricUbikPatrykU − PBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match28.535.7−7.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUbikPatrykBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 66 vs 129 / 23628.8%54.7%19 / 66 vs 129 / 236Avg sets wonper match1.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match31.839.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PatrykUbik 2.23/Patryk 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.3%
Patryk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Patryk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 10 · 21:00J. Ubik—11911113K. Patryk—511651
LAug 9 · 16:35J. Ubik—77110K. Patryk—1111133
LJul 28 · 21:00J. Ubik—4570K. Patryk—1111113
LJul 27 · 21:30J. Ubik—6550K. Patryk—1111113
WJul 27 · 17:00J. Ubik—121172123K. Patryk—1091111102
LJul 26 · 22:05J. Ubik—810100K. Patryk—1112123
J. Ubik10
LAug 11 · 13:30K. Patryk1.25111110113J. Ubik3.30851251WAug 11 · 11:00W. Arkadiusz1.447970J. Ubik2.471111113WAug 11 · 10:00J. Ubik2.151313113J. Komorowicz1.62111180WAug 11 · 09:00J. Ubik2.1011611113P. Kamil1.66611951LAug 11 · 07:30J. Ubik2.348610P. Odelski1.491111113LAug 10 · 22:10W. Arkadiusz1.611111113J. Ubik2.208990WAug 10 · 21:00K. Patryk1.75511651J. Ubik1.9511911113LAug 10 · 19:30J. Ubik1.90671181P. Kamil1.8011119113LAug 10 · 17:30W. Arkadiusz1.5311611113J. Ubik2.35611351LAug 10 · 15:30K. Kos1.42781111113J. Ubik2.5011113482
K. Patryk10
LSep 7 · 20:00K. Patryk—1175131W. Dariusz—61111153LSep 7 · 18:30K. Patryk1.82411561P. Odelski1.8811611113WSep 7 · 17:00K. Patryk1.5711118113L. Buklat2.25891171LSep 7 · 15:00K. Patryk1.50614551K. Kos2.30111211113WSep 7 · 14:00K. Patryk1.601091711113W. Arkadiusz2.10121115892WSep 2 · 22:10L. Buklat2.1599110K. Patryk1.611111133LSep 2 · 21:00L. Buklat2.1581311133K. Patryk1.5811116111LSep 2 · 19:30K. Patryk1.5781170W. Arkadiusz2.171113113WAug 11 · 13:30K. Patryk1.25111110113J. Ubik3.30851251LAug 10 · 21:00K. Patryk1.75511651J. Ubik1.9511911113
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