TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12402449
Played Aug 11Finished
Jaroslaw Ubik
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116611119115––
Pasek Kamil
Away
1.66
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:33 and never touched — 74.6% is still 74.6%
Graded at full timePasek Kamil to win
74.6%
74.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
116611119115––
H2H Jaroslaw Ubik 1–4 Pasek Kamil Jaroslaw Ubik has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (56%)
Kamil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Kamil
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ubik 1297 vs Kamil 1515
Kamil
Wrong
both rated, 218 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ubik 20% vs Kamil 100%
Kamil
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ubik 30% vs Kamil 70%
Kamil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ubik -3 · Kamil +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kamil) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kamil form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUbik 2.10 / Kamil 1.66
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kamil)+10.0pp
TT Cup · #12402449
Ubik2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 11 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Kamil1.66
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 18 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeUbik1wins
AwayKamil4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKamil leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUbikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKamil100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ubik1Kamil4n = 5Kamil took 4 of 5
S2Ubik1Kamil4n = 5Kamil took 4 of 5
S3Ubik3Kamil2n = 5Ubik took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricUbikKamilU − KBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match28.235.2−7.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUbikKamilBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 68 vs 104 / 17427.9%59.8%19 / 68 vs 104 / 174Avg sets wonper match1.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match31.640.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KamilUbik 2.10/Kamil 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.9%
Kamil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ubik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 10 · 19:30J. Ubik—671181P. Kamil—11119113
LAug 9 · 15:35J. Ubik—68111152P. Kamil—111179113
WJul 28 · 16:00J. Ubik—1111113P. Kamil—3880
LJul 27 · 14:00J. Ubik—3690P. Kamil—1111113
LJul 26 · 16:35J. Ubik—3680P. Kamil—1111113
J. Ubik10
LAug 11 · 13:30K. Patryk1.25111110113J. Ubik3.30851251WAug 11 · 11:00W. Arkadiusz1.447970J. Ubik2.471111113WAug 11 · 10:00J. Ubik2.151313113J. Komorowicz1.62111180LAug 11 · 07:30J. Ubik2.348610P. Odelski1.491111113LAug 11 · 05:30J. Ubik2.23912871K. Patryk1.53111011113LAug 10 · 22:10W. Arkadiusz1.611111113J. Ubik2.208990WAug 10 · 21:00K. Patryk1.75511651J. Ubik1.9511911113LAug 10 · 19:30J. Ubik1.90671181P. Kamil1.8011119113LAug 10 · 17:30W. Arkadiusz1.5311611113J. Ubik2.35611351LAug 10 · 15:30K. Kos1.42781111113J. Ubik2.5011113482
P. Kamil10
LSep 2 · 21:40P. Kamil1.6311811892J. Komorowicz2.15811811113WSep 2 · 20:00P. Kamil1.78111110113J. Komorowicz1.91671291LSep 2 · 18:30P. Kamil2.25671171P. Odelski1.5811118113LSep 2 · 17:00P. Kamil1.80119661L. Buklat1.9161111113LSep 2 · 15:00P. Kamil2.20471231K. Patryk1.58111110113WSep 2 · 14:00P. Kamil1.9016911113W. Arkadiusz1.801411471WSep 1 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.8511119582P. Kamil1.85791111113LSep 1 · 20:30P. Kamil1.7358100W. Arkadiusz1.981111123WSep 1 · 18:30F. Baranski—61111562P. Kamil—114911113WAug 10 · 19:30J. Ubik1.90671181P. Kamil1.8011119113
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