TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12388431
Played Aug 10Finished
Radek Adamczyk
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116114––––
Josef Toth
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Toth to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Adamczyk above · Josef Toth below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 52 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Josef Toth at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Radek Adamczyk 5–0 Josef Toth Josef Toth has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:22What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Adamczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Adamczyk
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamczyk 1258 vs Toth 1202
Adamczyk
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamczyk 40% vs Toth 20%
Adamczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamczyk 30% vs Toth 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamczyk -1 · Toth -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Adamczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamczyk 1.25 / Toth 3.75
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Adamczyk)+11.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12388431
Adamczyk1.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite50% won 20 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Toth3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 29 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back26% 8 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeAdamczyk5wins
AwayToth0wins
1 of 5 to a deciderAdamczyk leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamczyk100%5 of 5
AwayTothn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamczyk5Toth0n = 5Adamczyk took 5 of 5
S2Adamczyk3Toth2n = 5Adamczyk took 3 of 5
S3Adamczyk4Toth1n = 5Adamczyk took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricAdamczykTothA − TBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match39.428.4+11.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamczykTothBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 76 vs 73 / 16050%45.6%38 / 76 vs 73 / 160Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamczykAdamczyk 1.25/Toth 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86%
Adamczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Adamczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 10 · 06:30R. Adamczyk—1111113J. Toth—9640
WJul 26 · 11:00R. Adamczyk—11812113J. Toth—5111081
WMay 2 · 07:30R. Adamczyk—1111113J. Toth—5970
WApr 25 · 21:00R. Adamczyk—1111133J. Toth—94110
WApr 25 · 19:30R. Adamczyk—11101111113J. Toth—61213492
R. Adamczyk10
LAug 22 · 21:04R. Adamczyk1.919101141M. Blaha1.8011128113WAug 22 · 20:30R. Adamczyk2.00116711113M. Blaha1.7371111792LAug 22 · 19:00R. Adamczyk2.75131181152V. Kocian1.40159119113LAug 22 · 18:00D. Tyn1.501111113R. Adamczyk2.504350WAug 10 · 09:30R. Adamczyk1.7311911113D. Vavrecka2.00211641WAug 10 · 08:00D. Vavrecka1.61661141R. Adamczyk2.2011119113WAug 10 · 07:00Z. Luksa1.80541261R. Adamczyk1.91111110113LAug 9 · 09:28P. Banot1.67111211113R. Adamczyk2.10514321WAug 9 · 08:30R. Adamczyk2.001111137113Z. Luksa1.73513111182WAug 9 · 07:00R. Adamczyk2.7571111143D. Vavrecka1.401155121
J. Toth10
LAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:30A. Kanak1.615980J. Toth2.201111113WAug 23 · 07:30J. Toth2.201111310113D. Vavrecka1.6189111242WAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113LAug 15 · 12:59J. Toth1.3710970J. Foltynek2.871211113LAug 15 · 12:00J. Toth1.6711114842M. Stolba2.10991111113WAug 15 · 11:30J. Foltynek2.63791181J. Toth1.4411116113LAug 15 · 10:00J. Toth2.00781161I. Palmi1.7311116113WAug 10 · 08:58J. Toth3.5091111113Z. Luksa1.28117941LAug 10 · 08:30Z. Luksa1.25751111113J. Toth3.7511118672
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