TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12383625
Played Aug 9Finished
Radek Adamczyk
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11511131311711118
Zdenek Luksa
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZdenek Luksa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Adamczyk above · Zdenek Luksa below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 101 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Zdenek Luksa at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Radek Adamczyk 1–3 Zdenek Luksa Radek Adamczyk has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Luksa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Luksa
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamczyk 1220 vs Luksa 1252
Luksa
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamczyk 20% vs Luksa 40%
Luksa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamczyk 30% vs Luksa 60%
Luksa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamczyk +1 · Luksa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Luksa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Luksa form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamczyk 2.00 / Luksa 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Luksa)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12383625
Adamczyk2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 14 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back39% 7 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back30% 3 of 10
Luksa1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 20 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAdamczyk1wins
AwayLuksa3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLuksa leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamczyk33.3%1 of 3
AwayLuksan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamczyk3Luksa1n = 4Adamczyk took 3 of 4
S2Adamczyk1Luksa3n = 4Luksa took 3 of 4
S3Adamczyk1Luksa3n = 4Luksa took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricAdamczykLuksaA − LBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match41.843.2−1.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamczykLuksaBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 70 vs 45 / 10547.1%42.9%33 / 70 vs 45 / 105Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LuksaAdamczyk 2.00/Luksa 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Luksa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 18 · 19:00R. Adamczyk—11751192Z. Luksa—911116113
WMay 2 · 06:00R. Adamczyk—1111113Z. Luksa—7980
LMay 1 · 16:30R. Adamczyk—1013120Z. Luksa—1215143
LApr 25 · 18:00R. Adamczyk—131861182Z. Luksa—1120117113
R. Adamczyk10
LAug 22 · 21:04R. Adamczyk1.919101141M. Blaha1.8011128113WAug 22 · 20:30R. Adamczyk2.00116711113M. Blaha1.7371111792LAug 22 · 19:00R. Adamczyk2.75131181152V. Kocian1.40159119113LAug 22 · 18:00D. Tyn1.501111113R. Adamczyk2.504350WAug 10 · 09:30R. Adamczyk1.7311911113D. Vavrecka2.00211641WAug 10 · 08:00D. Vavrecka1.61661141R. Adamczyk2.2011119113WAug 10 · 07:00Z. Luksa1.80541261R. Adamczyk1.91111110113WAug 10 · 06:30R. Adamczyk1.251111113J. Toth3.759640LAug 9 · 09:28P. Banot1.67111211113R. Adamczyk2.10514321WAug 9 · 07:00R. Adamczyk2.7571111143D. Vavrecka1.401155121
Z. Luksa10
LAug 27 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.536880D. Vavrecka2.201111113LAug 27 · 12:00M. Blaha1.83911119113Z. Luksa1.8311971192WAug 27 · 11:00M. Stolba1.67611261Z. Luksa2.1011911113WAug 27 · 10:30Z. Luksa1.6712711113D. Vavrecka2.101011791WAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:00D. Vavrecka1.8071112762Z. Luksa1.911181011113WAug 23 · 07:00A. Kanak1.75121330Z. Luksa1.851415113LAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113LAug 10 · 08:58J. Toth3.5091111113Z. Luksa1.28117941LAug 10 · 07:00Z. Luksa1.80541261R. Adamczyk1.91111110113
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