TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Johannes Willeke vs Marcel Neumaier 2-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Aug 3Finished
Johannes Willeke
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111311711114911
Marcel Neumaier
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:04 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeMarcel Neumaier to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJohannes Willeke above · Marcel Neumaier below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Marcel Neumaier at 66.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Johannes Willeke 0–1 Marcel Neumaier Johannes Willeke has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Neumaier
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Willeke 1382 vs Neumaier 1584
Neumaier
Correct
both rated, 202 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Willeke 40% vs Neumaier 80%
Neumaier
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Willeke 20% vs Neumaier 70%
Neumaier
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Willeke -1 · Neumaier +4
Neumaier
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Neumaier) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWilleke 3.25 / Neumaier 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Neumaier)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12351683
Willeke3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Neumaier1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeWilleke0wins
AwayNeumaier1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderNeumaier leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricWillekeNeumaierW − NBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match47.048.0−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWillekeNeumaierBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 26 vs 49 / 9226.9%53.3%7 / 26 vs 49 / 92Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match30.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeumaierWilleke 3.25/Neumaier 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Neumaier · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neumaier won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 3 · 11:00J. Willeke4771371192M. Neumaier481111114113
J. Willeke10
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:30M. Henninger1.301111113J. Willeke3.407760LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:30J. Willeke6.70811531M. Danzer1.0511711113
M. Neumaier10
LAug 14 · 10:30M. Stefanidis—1111113M. Neumaier—9880LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 14 · 07:00M. Neumaier1.091111113N. Kizakisz5.803120WAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:30M. Stefanidis—119611113M. Neumaier—61111782WAug 13 · 12:00L. Qiu1.20117981M. Neumaier4.3371111113WAug 13 · 09:00D. Zech4.331177101M. Neumaier1.2081111123LAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib1.071111113M. Neumaier7.505920
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