TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12287495
Played Jul 23Finished
Borek Moravec
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5118111181311311
Michal Mikolasik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Michal Mikolasik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 92 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Borek Moravec at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 1–0 Michal Mikolasik Michal Mikolasik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:50What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1739 vs Mikolasik 1550
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 189 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Mikolasik 20%
Moravec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 60% vs Mikolasik 30%
Moravec
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -1 · Mikolasik -4
Mikolasik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mikolasik form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.80 / Mikolasik 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravec)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12287495
Moravec1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 88 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it79% 59 of 75
Mikolasik1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMoravec1wins
AwayMikolasik0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMoravec leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMoravecMikolasikMoravec − MikolasikBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match48.046.0+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecMikolasikBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 364 vs 14 / 2454.4%58.3%198 / 364 vs 14 / 24Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.80/Mikolasik 1.91
Miss
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mikolasik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMay 22 · 15:40B. Moravec—811711113M. Mikolasik—11811972
B. Moravec10
WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113WAug 30 · 09:19B. Moravec1.44119911113J. Skvrna2.6361111462WAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec1.44831112113F. Chaloupka2.63111181032WAug 30 · 06:40B. Moravec1.44111111113J. Skvrna2.63139431WAug 30 · 05:40B. Moravec1.50117119113J. Skalicky2.5051121172LAug 25 · 16:55J. Rak—116113113B. Moravec—61141182LAug 25 · 16:15J. Rak1.8311119113B. Moravec1.83691171
M. Mikolasik10
LJul 30 · 16:59J. Pribyl1.671211113M. Mikolasik2.1010640WJul 30 · 15:45M. Mikolasik1.7381113113D. Jr2.001151181LJul 30 · 14:45M. Mikolasik1.8312128272M. Moravek1.8310101111113LJul 30 · 14:45M. Mikolasik1.8512128272M. Moravec1.8510101111113LJul 30 · 13:45M. Mikolasik1.83611120J. Pribyl1.831113143LJul 23 · 17:25M. Mikolasik1.705660K. Kleprlik1.961111113WJul 23 · 16:15K. Kleprlik2.0091151552M. Mikolasik1.731191113113WJul 23 · 15:15M. Mikolasik2.201111113J. Lisztwan1.618960LMay 22 · 16:40R. Benes1.50101112113M. Mikolasik2.501261051LMay 22 · 15:40B. Moravec2.00811711113M. Mikolasik1.7311811972
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