TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12330361
Played Jul 30Finished
Michal Mikolasik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101210811211711
Michal Moravek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–2Last 3Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Mikolasik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Mikolasik above · Michal Moravek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 94 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Michal Mikolasik at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:50What took a side1 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Moravek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Mikolasik 60% vs Moravek 33%
Mikolasik
Wrong
27pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mikolasik 40% vs Moravek 33%
—
Too close
7pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mikolasik -2 · Moravek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mikolasik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravek form (33%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMikolasik 1.83 / Moravek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mikolasik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12330361
Mikolasik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Moravek1.83
33%won 1 of 3 · last 10
oldest → newest
33%takes the first set · 1 of 3
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMikolasikMoravekBasisWin rate · lifetime17 / 29 vs 3 / 1058.6%30%17 / 29 vs 3 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MikolasikMikolasik 1.83/Moravek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mikolasik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moravek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Mikolasik10
LJul 30 · 16:59J. Pribyl1.671211113M. Mikolasik2.1010640WJul 30 · 15:45M. Mikolasik1.7381113113D. Jr2.001151181LJul 30 · 14:45M. Mikolasik1.8512128272M. Moravec1.8510101111113LJul 30 · 13:45M. Mikolasik1.83611120J. Pribyl1.831113143LJul 23 · 17:25M. Mikolasik1.705660K. Kleprlik1.961111113WJul 23 · 16:15K. Kleprlik2.0091151552M. Mikolasik1.731191113113WJul 23 · 15:15M. Mikolasik2.201111113J. Lisztwan1.618960WJul 23 · 13:45B. Moravec1.8058111332M. Mikolasik1.911111811113LMay 22 · 16:40R. Benes1.50101112113M. Mikolasik2.501261051LMay 22 · 15:40B. Moravec2.00811711113M. Mikolasik1.7311811972
M. Moravek10
WAug 24 · 14:15M. Moravek1.83911115113L. Dzida1.8311861182WJul 30 · 16:15M. Moravek2.501161111113J. Pribyl1.5091161392LJul 30 · 14:15D. Jr1.611213113M. Moravek2.20101190WJan 23 · 18:20M. Moravek—1111113R. Benes—9680LApr 4 · 08:55D. Stusek1.8311111113M. Moravek1.83861191LNov 28 · 22:30R. Polasek—3M. Moravek—1LFeb 1 · 14:50O. Sebek—3M. Moravek—1WFeb 1 · 13:20M. Moravek—3J. Jarolim—0LFeb 1 · 12:20M. Moravek—2J. Bencik—3LFeb 1 · 11:20M. Moravek—2O. Sebek—3
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