TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13002068
Played Aug 24Finished
Michal Moravek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–2Last 5Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911118116511118
Lukas Dzida
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Moravek above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Michal Moravek at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:58What took a side1 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dzida
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Moravek 60% vs Dzida 40%
Moravek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravek 60% vs Dzida 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravek +2 · Dzida -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravek 1.83 / Dzida 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13002068
Moravek1.83
60%won 3 of 5 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 2 of 5
Dzida1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravekDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 10 vs 87 / 15640%55.8%4 / 10 vs 87 / 156Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravekMoravek 1.83/Dzida 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moravek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Moravek10
WJul 30 · 16:15M. Moravek2.501161111113J. Pribyl1.5091161392WJul 30 · 14:45M. Mikolasik1.8312128272M. Moravek1.8310101111113LJul 30 · 14:15D. Jr1.611213113M. Moravek2.20101190WJan 23 · 18:20M. Moravek—1111113R. Benes—9680LApr 4 · 08:55D. Stusek1.8311111113M. Moravek1.83861191LNov 28 · 22:30R. Polasek—3M. Moravek—1LFeb 1 · 14:50O. Sebek—3M. Moravek—1WFeb 1 · 13:20M. Moravek—3J. Jarolim—0LFeb 1 · 12:20M. Moravek—2J. Bencik—3LFeb 1 · 11:20M. Moravek—2O. Sebek—3
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991LSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191
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