TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12259807
Played Jul 19Finished
Damian Wederlich
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118115––––
Maksymilian Miastowski
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingDamian Wederlich above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5
55 points played in total.
H2H Damian Wederlich 11–6 Maksymilian Miastowski Maksymilian Miastowski has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Wederlich)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWederlich 1.44 / Miastowski 2.63
Signal prob.74% / 27%
Edge (Wederlich)+9.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12259807
Wederlich1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 49 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Miastowski2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 85 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back25% 28 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWederlich6wins
AwayMiastowski4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderWederlich leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWederlich80%4 of 5
AwayMiastowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wederlich5Miastowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Wederlich5Miastowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Wederlich3Miastowski7n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S4Wederlich5Miastowski1n = 6Wederlich took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricWederlichMiastowskiW − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.436.40.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWederlichMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 376 vs 627 / 120859.8%51.9%225 / 376 vs 627 / 1208Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WederlichWederlich 1.44/Miastowski 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.5%
Wederlich · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Wederlich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 19 · 04:10D. Wederlich—2560M. Miastowski—1111113
WJul 18 · 13:20D. Wederlich—91111113M. Miastowski—119571
WJul 18 · 06:30D. Wederlich—141210113M. Miastowski—12101281
WJul 22 · 15:10D. Wederlich—12101111113M. Miastowski—14126852
WJul 22 · 08:25D. Wederlich—13118113M. Miastowski—1171171
WJul 2 · 12:00D. Wederlich—13127113M. Miastowski—11101191
LJul 2 · 05:50D. Wederlich—9980M. Miastowski—1111113
WJul 1 · 13:40D. Wederlich—1112113M. Miastowski—71090
LMay 22 · 07:40D. Wederlich—11119101M. Miastowski—71311123
LApr 19 · 14:30D. Wederlich—3980M. Miastowski—1111113
D. Wederlich10
WJul 19 · 13:45D. Wederlich1.3381111113M. Domin3.25117981WJul 19 · 12:30D. Wederlich1.30111111133A. Spychala3.407137111WJul 19 · 10:00T. Spanik2.2511971482D. Wederlich1.579111112113WJul 19 · 09:20D. Wederlich1.7311811133G. Felkel2.006118111WJul 19 · 08:30D. Wederlich1.33511811113M. Domin3.2511811782LJul 19 · 06:55D. Wederlich1.739450G. Felkel2.001111113LJul 19 · 05:40D. Wederlich1.57910121172T. Spanik2.251112109113LJul 19 · 04:10D. Wederlich1.502560M. Miastowski2.501111113WJul 19 · 03:00D. Wederlich1.331111113A. Spychala3.258890LJul 18 · 14:35T. Spanik2.251111113D. Wederlich1.579910
M. Miastowski10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892WJul 19 · 04:10D. Wederlich1.502560M. Miastowski2.501111113
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