TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Radim Pavelka 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Michal Vedmoch
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3111210411211––
Radim Pavelka
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:24 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 64 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 62.1%
64 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 15–23 Radim Pavelka Michal Vedmoch has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:24What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-23 in 38
Pavelka
Correct
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1502 vs Pavelka 1574
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 0% vs Pavelka 60%
Pavelka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 10% vs Pavelka 60%
Pavelka
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch -5 · Pavelka -1
Vedmoch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavelka) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 1.91 / Pavelka 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavelka)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13176755
Vedmoch1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 108 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back19% 23 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 70
Pavelka1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 92 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 64 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVedmoch2wins
AwayPavelka8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch66.7%2 of 3
AwayPavelka100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch3Pavelka7n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S2Vedmoch7Pavelka3n = 10Vedmoch took 7 of 10
S3Vedmoch3Pavelka7n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S4Vedmoch2Pavelka5n = 7Pavelka took 5 of 7
S5Vedmoch0Pavelka3n = 3Pavelka took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVedmochPavelkaV − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.038.9−7.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime695 / 1306 vs 446 / 87553.2%51%695 / 1306 vs 446 / 875Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaVedmoch 1.91/Pavelka 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 06:00M. Vedmoch21312421R. Pavelka43111011113
WSep 9 · 01:00M. Vedmoch3712311113R. Pavelka351011951
WSep 7 · 14:00M. Vedmoch331111113R. Pavelka189450
LAug 30 · 20:00M. Vedmoch34713771R. Pavelka44111111113
LAug 30 · 03:30M. Vedmoch167720R. Pavelka331111113
LAug 30 · 02:00M. Vedmoch4491151182R. Pavelka47118116113
LAug 25 · 20:00M. Vedmoch166460R. Pavelka331111113
LAug 24 · 17:30M. Vedmoch3851111742R. Pavelka45118411113
LAug 24 · 14:00M. Vedmoch4412118492R. Pavelka481051111113
LAug 7 · 08:30M. Vedmoch27512371R. Pavelka43111011113
M. Vedmoch10
LSep 22 · 17:00P. Zmuda1.571111113M. Vedmoch2.258640LSep 22 · 16:00T. Holik1.67101111113M. Vedmoch2.10126931LSep 22 · 15:00P. Zmuda1.731211113M. Vedmoch2.0010890LSep 22 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.005770M. Volf1.731111113LSep 22 · 02:30A. Hlawatschke1.6711116113M. Vedmoch2.10791161WSep 22 · 01:00R. Krejci1.917620M. Vedmoch1.801111113LSep 21 · 23:30M. Vedmoch2.501011841D. Tuma1.5012911113LSep 21 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.7311101191P. Zmuda2.0081213113LSep 11 · 02:59M. Sobisek1.361110511133M. Vedmoch3.00512117112LSep 11 · 02:30M. Sobisek1.401311113M. Vedmoch2.7511450
R. Pavelka10
LSep 23 · 07:00R. Pavelka1.83108111382P. Zmuda1.831211511113LSep 20 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.651011711113R. Pavelka2.1012511482WSep 20 · 20:30P. Budinsky1.83118441R. Pavelka1.8351111113WSep 20 · 19:30R. Pavelka1.911111113V. Postelt1.807570LSep 20 · 18:30J. Stolfa1.801111113R. Pavelka1.909760WSep 20 · 03:00R. Pavelka1.7391111143J. Prokupek2.001158121WSep 20 · 02:30P. Budinsky1.73811111162R. Pavelka2.00113134113LSep 20 · 01:00J. Trefny1.9111116113R. Pavelka1.80481141WSep 19 · 23:30R. Pavelka2.201411113D. Kouble1.6112540LSep 19 · 22:00R. Pavelka1.611165101J. Prokupek2.2061111123
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