TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Jakub Stolfa
Home
1.65
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012115711114118
Radim Pavelka
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 56.4%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 12–6 Radim Pavelka Radim Pavelka has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Stolfa beat Pavelka 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:06What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Stolfa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Stolfa
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1605 vs Pavelka 1536
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 60% vs Pavelka 80%
Pavelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 40% vs Pavelka 70%
Pavelka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa -1 · Pavelka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Stolfa) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 1.65 / Pavelka 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Stolfa)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13166570
Stolfa1.65
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 74 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it77% 48 of 62
Pavelka2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 68 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back25% 23 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStolfa8wins
AwayPavelka2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStolfa leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStolfa100%4 of 4
AwayPavelka33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolfa4Pavelka6n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S2Stolfa4Pavelka6n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S3Stolfa7Pavelka3n = 10Stolfa took 7 of 10
S4Stolfa5Pavelka2n = 7Stolfa took 5 of 7
S5Stolfa4Pavelka0n = 4Stolfa took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStolfaPavelkaS − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.034.3+4.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 376 vs 449 / 88251.1%50.9%192 / 376 vs 449 / 882Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaStolfa 1.65/Pavelka 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 21:30J. Stolfa501011711113R. Pavelka4012511482
WSep 20 · 18:30J. Stolfa331111113R. Pavelka229760
WAug 23 · 20:00J. Stolfa3951211113R. Pavelka341110851
WAug 22 · 09:30J. Stolfa4111811113R. Pavelka28511841
WAug 22 · 07:00J. Stolfa46115118113R. Pavelka4061141182
LAug 16 · 21:04J. Stolfa227780R. Pavelka331111113
LAug 16 · 18:00J. Stolfa239770R. Pavelka331111113
WAug 14 · 11:30J. Stolfa49691211113R. Pavelka42111110552
WAug 13 · 17:07J. Stolfa451121110113R. Pavelka4281151262
WAug 13 · 16:00J. Stolfa4291111113R. Pavelka29114681
J. Stolfa10
LSep 20 · 20:00V. Postelt1.8311911113J. Stolfa1.83911581WSep 20 · 19:00P. Budinsky2.004101161J. Stolfa1.7211126113WSep 20 · 18:30J. Stolfa1.801111113R. Pavelka1.909760WSep 20 · 16:58J. Holubec1.9191111182J. Stolfa1.80114113113LSep 20 · 16:30J. Stolfa2.10511681T. Holik1.6711611113LSep 20 · 15:00J. Stolfa1.915770D. Tuma1.801111113WSep 20 · 14:00J. Holubec1.57881181J. Stolfa2.2511116113LSep 18 · 09:00M. Vizek1.6111118113J. Stolfa2.20751171LSep 18 · 08:30J. Stolfa1.8091161162M. Sobisek1.91113114113LSep 18 · 07:00J. Stolfa2.101279101M. Vizek1.67101111123
R. Pavelka10
WSep 20 · 20:30P. Budinsky1.83118441R. Pavelka1.8351111113WSep 20 · 19:30R. Pavelka1.911111113V. Postelt1.807570LSep 20 · 18:30J. Stolfa1.801111113R. Pavelka1.909760WSep 20 · 03:00R. Pavelka1.7391111143J. Prokupek2.001158121WSep 20 · 02:30P. Budinsky1.73811111162R. Pavelka2.00113134113LSep 20 · 01:00J. Trefny1.9111116113R. Pavelka1.80481141WSep 19 · 23:30R. Pavelka2.201411113D. Kouble1.6112540LSep 19 · 22:00R. Pavelka1.611165101J. Prokupek2.2061111123WSep 18 · 21:29R. Pavelka1.73116118113J. Prokupek2.0051121152WSep 18 · 20:00R. Pavelka2.50412118113P. Budinsky1.50111031172
Upcoming Matches
J. Stolfa
R. Pavelka
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.