TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210511117811411
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched: 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 90 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 72.3%
90 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 3–1 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:4572.3%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 4.6pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Alieksieev
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Alieksieev
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Alieksieev 1739 vs Shchegelskyi 1610
Alieksieev
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Alieksieev 80% vs Shchegelskyi 60%
Alieksieev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Alieksieev 80% vs Shchegelskyi 60%
Alieksieev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Alieksieev +2 · Shchegelskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Alieksieev) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlieksieev 1.30 / Shchegelskyi 3.40
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Alieksieev)-4.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270315
Alieksieev1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 52 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Shchegelskyi3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 63 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAlieksieev3wins
AwayShchegelskyi1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderAlieksieev leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAlieksieev75%3 of 4
AwayShchegelskyin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Alieksieev4Shchegelskyi0n = 4Alieksieev took 4 of 4
S2Alieksieev3Shchegelskyi1n = 4Alieksieev took 3 of 4
S3Alieksieev3Shchegelskyi1n = 4Alieksieev took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricAlieksieevShchegelskyiA − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match37.227.5+9.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlieksieevShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 189 vs 458 / 90060.9%50.9%115 / 189 vs 458 / 900Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevAlieksieev 1.30/Shchegelskyi 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.3%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 10 · 23:00O. Alieksieev4012511842D. Shchegelskyi501011711113
WJul 27 · 07:35O. Alieksieev331111113D. Shchegelskyi207760
WJul 26 · 19:05O. Alieksieev4211119113D. Shchegelskyi20521121
WJul 25 · 23:30O. Alieksieev341111123D. Shchegelskyi2037100
O. Alieksieev10
WOct 10 · 21:30O. Alieksieev1.3611711113Y. Parahailo3.00511981WOct 10 · 20:00O. Alieksieev1.331211113O. Storozhenko3.2510760LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172
D. Shchegelskyi10
LOct 10 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi1.80129721O. Storozhenko1.91101111113LOct 10 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.10117912113D. Shchegelskyi1.67411111092WOct 9 · 03:15D. Shchegelskyi1.9111117113O. Storozhenko1.80961191WOct 9 · 01:15M. Khomenko2.2515116882D. Shchegelskyi1.571361111113WOct 8 · 23:15V. Kovalchuk1.8381480D. Shchegelskyi1.831116113LOct 8 · 22:15D. Shchegelskyi2.2010127101Y. Parahailo1.61121011123WOct 8 · 21:15Y. Tebenko2.106911101D. Shchegelskyi1.6711112123LOct 5 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi1.831191011112Y. Kolos1.83811126133WOct 5 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2512512862D. Shchegelskyi1.5710111011113WOct 5 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811111182D. Shchegelskyi1.61119139113
Upcoming Matches
O. Alieksieev
Oct 11 · 00:30O. Alieksieev1.53V. Kovalchuk2.38—Oct 11 · 02:00O. Alieksieev1.44M. Khomenko2.63—Oct 11 · 12:05O. Alieksieev1.30O. Storozhenko3.40—Oct 11 · 13:35O. Alieksieev1.36Y. Parahailo3.00—Oct 11 · 15:05O. Alieksieev1.22D. Shchegelskyi4.00—Oct 11 · 16:35O. Alieksieev1.53V. Kovalchuk2.38—Oct 11 · 18:05O. Alieksieev1.44M. Khomenko2.63—
D. Shchegelskyi
Oct 11 · 01:00D. Shchegelskyi1.61M. Khomenko2.20—Oct 11 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.00Y. Parahailo1.73—Oct 11 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.61V. Kovalchuk2.20—Oct 11 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.00O. Storozhenko1.73—Oct 11 · 15:05D. Shchegelskyi4.00O. Alieksieev1.22—Oct 11 · 17:05D. Shchegelskyi1.61M. Khomenko2.20—Oct 11 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi2.00Y. Parahailo1.73—
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