TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Yurii Parahailo 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115711119118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched: 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 70.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 4–2 Yurii Parahailo Yurii Parahailo has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2870.0%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.4pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Alieksieev
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Alieksieev
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Alieksieev 1748 vs Parahailo 1561
Alieksieev
Correct
both rated, 187 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Alieksieev 80% vs Parahailo 60%
Alieksieev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Alieksieev 80% vs Parahailo 40%
Alieksieev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Alieksieev +1 · Parahailo -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Alieksieev) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlieksieev 1.363 / Parahailo 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Alieksieev)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13271098
Alieksieev1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 52 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Parahailo3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 64 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeAlieksieev4wins
AwayParahailo2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderAlieksieev leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAlieksieev80%4 of 5
AwayParahailon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Alieksieev5Parahailo1n = 6Alieksieev took 5 of 6
S2Alieksieev2Parahailo4n = 6Parahailo took 4 of 6
S3Alieksieev6Parahailo0n = 6Alieksieev took 6 of 6
S4Alieksieev1Parahailo3n = 4Parahailo took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricAlieksieevParahailoA − PBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match39.034.7+4.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlieksieevParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 187 vs 408 / 81661%50%114 / 187 vs 408 / 816Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevAlieksieev 1.36/Parahailo 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Alieksieev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJul 27 · 10:35O. Alieksieev331111113Y. Parahailo215970
LJul 26 · 17:35O. Alieksieev27731161Y. Parahailo4211119113
WJul 25 · 21:30O. Alieksieev331111113Y. Parahailo239950
WJul 8 · 10:35O. Alieksieev51119119113Y. Parahailo4241191172
LJul 7 · 19:05O. Alieksieev4711711992Y. Parahailo48611911113
WJul 6 · 21:00O. Alieksieev43111011113Y. Parahailo32712491
O. Alieksieev10
WOct 10 · 20:00O. Alieksieev1.331211113O. Storozhenko3.2510760LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172WAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113
Y. Parahailo10
LOct 10 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.28118711123Y. Parahailo3.50311119102WOct 9 · 02:45Y. Tebenko1.83611591Y. Parahailo1.8311611113LOct 9 · 01:45O. Storozhenko1.8391111113Y. Parahailo1.83117971WOct 9 · 00:15M. Khomenko1.2551151182Y. Parahailo3.75116117113WOct 8 · 22:15D. Shchegelskyi2.2010127101Y. Parahailo1.61121011123WOct 8 · 20:15V. Kovalchuk2.635250Y. Parahailo1.441111113LOct 5 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.83111253113Y. Parahailo1.83910111132LOct 5 · 10:05Y. Kolos1.331111113Y. Parahailo3.259670LOct 5 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.251111113Y. Parahailo3.754690LOct 5 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi2.101011211113Y. Parahailo1.6712911972
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