TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Khomenko vs Yurii Parahailo 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511116511117811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:06 and never touched: 79.3% is still 79.3%
Graded at full timeMaksym Khomenko to win
79.3%
79.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 86 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Maksym Khomenko at 79.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 73–14 Yurii Parahailo Yurii Parahailo has won 14 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:0679.3%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 0.7pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Khomenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
73-14 in 87
Khomenko
Wrong
gap of 59 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1629 vs Parahailo 1555
Khomenko
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 60% vs Parahailo 40%
Khomenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 70% vs Parahailo 40%
Khomenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko +1 · Parahailo +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Khomenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 1.25 / Parahailo 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Khomenko)-0.7pp
Setka Cup · #13260955
Khomenko1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 86 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it100% 53 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it86% 63 of 73
Parahailo3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 64 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko9wins
AwayParahailo1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKhomenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayParahailo0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko7Parahailo3n = 10Khomenko took 7 of 10
S2Khomenko8Parahailo2n = 10Khomenko took 8 of 10
S3Khomenko7Parahailo2n = 9Khomenko took 7 of 9
S4Khomenko5Parahailo1n = 6Khomenko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoParahailoK − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.729.2+10.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 817 vs 406 / 81253.4%50%436 / 817 vs 406 / 812Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhomenkoKhomenko 1.25/Parahailo 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.3%
Khomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 5 · 08:35M. Khomenko331111113Y. Parahailo194690
WOct 4 · 18:05M. Khomenko48781111113Y. Parahailo3711116542
WOct 4 · 00:00M. Khomenko3911116113Y. Parahailo28671141
WSep 28 · 10:35M. Khomenko3741111113Y. Parahailo29114681
WSep 27 · 18:35M. Khomenko3811115113Y. Parahailo29281181
WSep 27 · 02:00M. Khomenko4291111113Y. Parahailo28115661
WSep 19 · 20:30M. Khomenko331111113Y. Parahailo249780
LSep 14 · 10:35M. Khomenko541112128112Y. Parahailo513141011133
WSep 13 · 00:00M. Khomenko331111113Y. Parahailo185760
M. Khomenko10
LOct 9 · 01:15M. Khomenko2.2515116882D. Shchegelskyi1.571361111113WOct 8 · 22:45M. Khomenko1.5711411113Y. Tebenko2.25611571LOct 8 · 20:45M. Khomenko1.3312340O. Storozhenko3.251411113WOct 5 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk1.911161491M. Khomenko1.8061116113LOct 5 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2512512862D. Shchegelskyi1.5710111011113WOct 5 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.251111113Y. Parahailo3.754690WOct 5 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.53116712113Y. Tebenko2.38511111092WOct 5 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.221111113Y. Kolos4.002940WOct 4 · 18:05Y. Parahailo3.7511116542M. Khomenko1.25781111113LOct 4 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.251161091D. Shchegelskyi1.5791112113
Y. Parahailo10
WOct 8 · 22:15D. Shchegelskyi2.2010127101Y. Parahailo1.61121011123WOct 8 · 20:15V. Kovalchuk2.635250Y. Parahailo1.441111113LOct 5 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.83111253113Y. Parahailo1.83910111132LOct 5 · 10:05Y. Kolos1.331111113Y. Parahailo3.259670LOct 5 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.251111113Y. Parahailo3.754690LOct 5 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi2.101011211113Y. Parahailo1.6712911972WOct 5 · 04:35V. Kovalchuk2.506760Y. Parahailo1.501111113LOct 4 · 18:05Y. Parahailo3.7511116542M. Khomenko1.25781111113LOct 4 · 16:35Y. Parahailo1.838450R. Novak1.831111113WOct 4 · 15:05Y. Parahailo2.3881112123D. Shchegelskyi1.5311810101
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