TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Kovalchuk vs Maksym Khomenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1166111416911––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:36 and never touched: 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMaksym Khomenko to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Maksym Khomenko @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Maksym Khomenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 84 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Maksym Khomenko at 54.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 30–29 Maksym Khomenko Maksym Khomenko has won 29 of their 59 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:3654.7%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 0.9pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Khomenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-29 in 59
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1540 vs Khomenko 1624
Khomenko
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Khomenko 80%
Khomenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 30% vs Khomenko 50%
Khomenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -2 · Khomenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Khomenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khomenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.909 / Khomenko 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Khomenko)-0.9pp
Setka Cup · #13245062
Kovalchuk1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 96 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back21% 22 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Khomenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 82 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it100% 51 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it86% 60 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayKhomenko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk75%3 of 4
AwayKhomenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk4Khomenko6n = 10Khomenko took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Khomenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk7Khomenko2n = 9Kovalchuk took 7 of 9
S4Kovalchuk2Khomenko4n = 6Khomenko took 4 of 6
S5Kovalchuk2Khomenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukKhomenkoKovalchuk − KhomenkoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.338.0+1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukKhomenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 774 vs 447 / 82948.1%53.9%372 / 774 vs 447 / 829Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhomenkoKovalchuk 1.91/Khomenko 1.80
Hit
What we said
54.7%
Khomenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Maksym Khomenko @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
1–3
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 4 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk43111011113M. Khomenko27612541
WOct 3 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk518111110113M. Khomenko4611971272
WSep 19 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk351113113M. Khomenko2671180
LSep 14 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk381513371M. Khomenko50171111113
LSep 12 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk3956111162M. Khomenko47111186113
LAug 24 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk2164110M. Khomenko351111133
LAug 23 · 13:35V. Kovalchuk44118121032M. Khomenko506111012113
WAug 22 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk351111133M. Khomenko2696110
WAug 17 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk48811117113M. Khomenko3511171152
V. Kovalchuk10
LOct 5 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk1.67611681Y. Tebenko2.1011611113LOct 5 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811111182D. Shchegelskyi1.61119139113WOct 5 · 06:05V. Kovalchuk1.83101111113Y. Kolos1.83128941LOct 5 · 04:35V. Kovalchuk2.506760Y. Parahailo1.501111113WOct 4 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi1.91611615112V. Kovalchuk1.801141113133LOct 4 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.10414771O. Storozhenko1.67111211113LOct 4 · 15:35R. Novak1.671111123V. Kovalchuk2.1068100LOct 4 · 13:35Y. Parahailo1.531111103V. Kovalchuk2.388970WOct 4 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.73612541V. Kovalchuk2.00111011113LOct 4 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.388590Y. Parahailo1.531111113
M. Khomenko10
LOct 5 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2512512862D. Shchegelskyi1.5710111011113WOct 5 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.251111113Y. Parahailo3.754690WOct 5 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.53116712113Y. Tebenko2.38511111092WOct 5 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.221111113Y. Kolos4.002940WOct 4 · 18:05Y. Parahailo3.7511116542M. Khomenko1.25781111113LOct 4 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.251161091D. Shchegelskyi1.5791112113WOct 4 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.401111113O. Storozhenko2.758680LOct 4 · 14:35M. Khomenko1.80811591R. Novak1.9111811113LOct 4 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.73612541V. Kovalchuk2.00111011113LOct 4 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.50111110113M. Khomenko1.50691261
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