TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Kovalchuk vs Yurii Kolos 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012118119114––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:01 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Kolos to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Yurii Kolos below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 76 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Yurii Kolos at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 6–5 Yurii Kolos Yurii Kolos has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0154.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kolos
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1560 vs Kolos 1502
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Kolos 40%
Kolos
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Kolos 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Kolos -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kolos) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolos form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.833 / Kolos 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalchuk)-8.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245129
Kovalchuk1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kolos1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayKolos5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk66.7%4 of 6
AwayKolos75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Kolos4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk8Kolos2n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S3Kovalchuk3Kolos7n = 10Kolos took 7 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Kolos6n = 10Kolos took 6 of 10
S5Kovalchuk1Kolos2n = 3Kolos took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukKolosKovalchuk − KolosBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.141.1+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukKolosBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 772 vs 54 / 11848.2%45.8%372 / 772 vs 54 / 118Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.535.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolosKovalchuk 1.83/Kolos 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 06:05V. Kovalchuk43101111113Y. Kolos33128941
LSep 13 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk5511111112102Y. Kolos56913814123
LAug 10 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk375137121Y. Kolos47111111143
WJun 21 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk3811115113Y. Kolos31681161
LJun 14 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk4311711772Y. Kolos47911511113
WMar 9 · 09:35V. Kovalchuk4111118113Y. Kolos29691131
LMar 8 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk37911891Y. Kolos4111811113
WDec 29 · 09:35V. Kovalchuk5511111210113Y. Kolos4777141272
WDec 28 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk4111118113Y. Kolos37991181
LDec 22 · 09:35V. Kovalchuk31612851Y. Kolos43111011113
V. Kovalchuk10
LOct 5 · 04:35V. Kovalchuk2.506760Y. Parahailo1.501111113WOct 4 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi1.91611615112V. Kovalchuk1.801141113133LOct 4 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.10414771O. Storozhenko1.67111211113LOct 4 · 15:35R. Novak1.671111123V. Kovalchuk2.1068100LOct 4 · 13:35Y. Parahailo1.531111103V. Kovalchuk2.388970WOct 4 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.73612541V. Kovalchuk2.00111011113LOct 4 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.388590Y. Parahailo1.531111113WOct 4 · 00:30Y. Tebenko1.839550V. Kovalchuk1.831111113LOct 3 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.201181291D. Shchegelskyi1.6161114113WOct 3 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.6111971272V. Kovalchuk2.208111110113
Y. Kolos10
LOct 5 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.221111113Y. Kolos4.002940LSep 27 · 18:05R. Novak2.201111113Y. Kolos1.614990WSep 27 · 17:05Y. Kolos2.00118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.7381111672WSep 27 · 16:05Y. Kolos1.33111113113Y. Parahailo3.251371121LSep 27 · 14:35Y. Kolos4.338460M. Khomenko1.201111113WSep 27 · 12:35Y. Kolos2.201111107113Y. Vorsuliak1.6185121172LSep 13 · 18:05R. Novak2.2581114113Y. Kolos1.571121291WSep 13 · 17:05Y. Kolos1.361111113Y. Parahailo3.006870LSep 13 · 16:05Y. Kolos2.108860O. Rodin1.67111162WSep 13 · 14:35Y. Kolos1.83913814123V. Kovalchuk1.8311111112102
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