TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ruslan Novak vs Yurii Kolos 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119119––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:17 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeYurii Kolos to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Yurii Kolos below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Yurii Kolos at 59.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 6–6 Yurii Kolos Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:17What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolos
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1493 vs Kolos 1544
Kolos
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 20% vs Kolos 60%
Kolos
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 40% vs Kolos 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -1 · Kolos +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kolos)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 2.20 / Kolos 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kolos)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13202593
Novak2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 24 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Kolos1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 15 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak4wins
AwayKolos6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKolos leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKolos66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak1Kolos9n = 10Kolos took 9 of 10
S2Novak5Kolos5n = 10split evenly
S3Novak4Kolos6n = 10Kolos took 6 of 10
S4Novak3Kolos2n = 5Novak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakKolosN − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match32.735.5−2.8per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakKolosBasisWin rate · lifetime266 / 512 vs 54 / 11552%47%266 / 512 vs 54 / 115Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolosNovak 2.20/Kolos 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Kolos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 18:05R. Novak4481114113Y. Kolos341121291
WAug 2 · 15:35R. Novak45481111113Y. Kolos4111118562
LJul 27 · 08:05R. Novak32511881Y. Kolos4211911113
WJul 26 · 16:35R. Novak48151111113Y. Kolos42179881
LJul 19 · 13:05R. Novak2467110Y. Kolos351111133
LJun 21 · 17:35R. Novak207760Y. Kolos331111113
LJun 8 · 10:09R. Novak195950Y. Kolos331111113
WJun 8 · 07:35R. Novak341112113Y. Kolos2251070
LMar 9 · 11:05R. Novak358111061Y. Kolos3911512113
LMar 8 · 18:35R. Novak2610790Y. Kolos341211113
R. Novak10
LSep 27 · 16:35R. Novak1.80111111972M. Khomenko1.91771311113WSep 27 · 15:05R. Novak2.00118811113D. Shchegelskyi1.7381111692LSep 27 · 13:35R. Novak2.75991181Y. Vorsuliak1.4011119113LSep 27 · 12:05R. Novak1.8312791152Y. Parahailo1.831011116113LSep 27 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi1.6711128113R. Novak2.108101181LSep 27 · 01:30R. Novak2.637190Y. Vorsuliak1.441111113WSep 26 · 23:30Y. Tebenko1.83341161R. Novak1.8311118113WSep 26 · 21:30Y. Parahailo1.83741171R. Novak1.8311118113WSep 26 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.9121112842R. Novak1.801151011113LSep 20 · 18:05R. Novak1.67108111172V. Kovalchuk2.10121115113
Y. Kolos10
WSep 27 · 17:05Y. Kolos2.00118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.7381111672WSep 27 · 16:05Y. Kolos1.33111113113Y. Parahailo3.251371121LSep 27 · 14:35Y. Kolos4.338460M. Khomenko1.201111113WSep 27 · 12:35Y. Kolos2.201111107113Y. Vorsuliak1.6185121172LSep 13 · 18:05R. Novak2.2581114113Y. Kolos1.571121291WSep 13 · 17:05Y. Kolos1.361111113Y. Parahailo3.006870LSep 13 · 16:05Y. Kolos2.108860O. Rodin1.67111162WSep 13 · 14:35Y. Kolos1.83913814123V. Kovalchuk1.8311111112102LSep 13 · 12:35Y. Kolos4.0093110M. Khomenko1.221111133LSep 7 · 09:44M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Kolos3.505630
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