TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Kovalchuk vs Yurii Parahailo 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:16 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Parahailo to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Yurii Parahailo at 59.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 45–74 Yurii Parahailo Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 45 of their 119 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:1659.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 6.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Parahailo
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
45-74 in 119
Parahailo
Correct
gap of 29 in 119, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1598 vs Parahailo 1557
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Parahailo 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 50% vs Parahailo 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Parahailo +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Parahailo) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.375 / Parahailo 1.533
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Parahailo)-6.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234801
Kovalchuk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 96 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back22% 22 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Parahailo1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 84 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it76% 64 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk2wins
AwayParahailo8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderParahailo leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk40%2 of 5
AwayParahailo100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk2Parahailo8n = 10Parahailo took 8 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Parahailo6n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk1Parahailo6n = 7Parahailo took 6 of 7
S5Kovalchuk2Parahailo3n = 5Parahailo took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukParahailoK − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.142.7−6.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 769 vs 407 / 81448.4%50%372 / 769 vs 407 / 814Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoKovalchuk 2.38/Parahailo 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk49611171142Y. Parahailo57117199113
WSep 19 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk52129119113Y. Parahailo43101141172
WSep 14 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk42111172113Y. Parahailo4359111172
LSep 13 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk33591181Y. Parahailo4011117113
LSep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk301110451Y. Parahailo4171211113
LAug 24 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk208570Y. Parahailo331111113
LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk47111011872Y. Parahailo48612811113
LAug 23 · 00:30V. Kovalchuk46117121062Y. Parahailo528111012113
LAug 19 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk2513480Y. Parahailo371511113
LAug 18 · 12:05V. Kovalchuk173590Y. Parahailo331111113
V. Kovalchuk10
WOct 4 · 00:30Y. Tebenko1.839550V. Kovalchuk1.831111113LOct 3 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.201181291D. Shchegelskyi1.6161114113WOct 3 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.6111971272V. Kovalchuk2.208111110113WOct 3 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk1.801111113O. Storozhenko1.916970WSep 20 · 18:05R. Novak1.67108111172V. Kovalchuk2.10121115113LSep 20 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk1.6711911832Y. Tebenko2.10711811113LSep 20 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk1.8061211342O. Storozhenko1.911110511113LSep 20 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.63611171142Y. Parahailo1.44117199113LSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811116102D. Shchegelskyi1.61118911123WSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111872
Y. Parahailo10
WOct 4 · 01:30D. Shchegelskyi2.0011119292Y. Parahailo1.73971111113LOct 4 · 00:00M. Khomenko1.2511116113Y. Parahailo3.75671141WOct 3 · 22:00O. Storozhenko1.83115118112Y. Parahailo1.83111811133LOct 3 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.839101111113Y. Parahailo1.8311126562LSep 28 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.75114681M. Khomenko1.2541111113WSep 28 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.831111133Y. Tebenko1.8392110LSep 28 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.611191291D. Shchegelskyi2.2091114113WSep 28 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.251111911153Y. Vorsuliak1.57135117132WSep 28 · 04:35Y. Parahailo1.80121117113O. Storozhenko1.911091961WSep 20 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.63611171142Y. Parahailo1.44117199113
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