TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Kovalchuk vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1168111214911––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 58.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 54–82 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 54 of their 136 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:5358.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Shchegelskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
54-82 in 136
Shchegelskyi
Correct
gap of 28 in 136, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1594 vs Shchegelskyi 1584
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Shchegelskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Shchegelskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +3 · Shchegelskyi +2
Kovalchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Shchegelskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.20 / Shchegelskyi 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234622
Kovalchuk2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 96 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back22% 22 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Shchegelskyi1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 82 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 53 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk3wins
AwayShchegelskyi7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk60%3 of 5
AwayShchegelskyi100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk6Shchegelskyi4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk1Shchegelskyi5n = 6Shchegelskyi took 5 of 6
S5Kovalchuk1Shchegelskyi3n = 4Shchegelskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukShchegelskyiK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.138.3−2.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime371 / 767 vs 461 / 90948.4%50.7%371 / 767 vs 461 / 909Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiKovalchuk 2.20/Shchegelskyi 1.61
Hit
What we said
58.1%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
1–3
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk46811116102D. Shchegelskyi51118911123
WSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk46118511113D. Shchegelskyi4471111872
LAug 1 · 23:00V. Kovalchuk46611116122D. Shchegelskyi51117811143
LJul 13 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk29910100D. Shchegelskyi351112123
WJul 12 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk331111113D. Shchegelskyi185760
LJul 12 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk35117891D. Shchegelskyi3961111113
LJul 6 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk4411117962D. Shchegelskyi45391111113
WJul 5 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk351311113D. Shchegelskyi2611690
LJun 15 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk32611781D. Shchegelskyi4111811113
LJun 14 · 00:30V. Kovalchuk154650D. Shchegelskyi331111113
V. Kovalchuk10
WOct 4 · 00:30Y. Tebenko1.839550V. Kovalchuk1.831111113WOct 3 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.6111971272V. Kovalchuk2.208111110113WOct 3 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk1.801111113O. Storozhenko1.916970WSep 20 · 18:05R. Novak1.67108111172V. Kovalchuk2.10121115113LSep 20 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk1.6711911832Y. Tebenko2.10711811113LSep 20 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk1.8061211342O. Storozhenko1.911110511113LSep 20 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.63611171142Y. Parahailo1.44117199113LSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811116102D. Shchegelskyi1.61118911123WSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111872WSep 20 · 00:30Y. Tebenko2.006712101V. Kovalchuk1.73111110123
D. Shchegelskyi10
WOct 3 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.1081060D. Shchegelskyi1.671112113WOct 3 · 20:30M. Khomenko2.207790D. Shchegelskyi1.611111113LOct 1 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi2.508880V. Krokhmal1.501111113WOct 1 · 17:05M. Loboda1.61121111592D. Shchegelskyi2.20148411113LOct 1 · 15:05Y. Vorsuliak1.5711311143D. Shchegelskyi2.258118121WOct 1 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.25714113113V. Kaidakov1.57111271192LOct 1 · 13:05A. Nazrin1.36147117113D. Shchegelskyi3.00121171172LOct 1 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.3891111982V. Krokhmal1.53116611113WSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811116102D. Shchegelskyi1.61118911123LSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111872
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