TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Tebenko vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012611––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 58 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 27–36 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Yaroslav Tebenko has won 27 of their 63 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 20:30Sent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 1.67 · Won
54.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shchegelskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-36 in 63
Shchegelskyi
Correct
gap of 9 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1611 vs Shchegelskyi 1584
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 40% vs Shchegelskyi 60%
Shchegelskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 60% vs Shchegelskyi 40%
Tebenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +1 · Shchegelskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Shchegelskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.10 / Shchegelskyi 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234411
Tebenko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 125 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back34% 46 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 70
Shchegelskyi1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 82 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 53 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko4wins
AwayShchegelskyi6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko50%2 of 4
AwayShchegelskyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko3Shchegelskyi7n = 10Shchegelskyi took 7 of 10
S3Tebenko2Shchegelskyi8n = 10Shchegelskyi took 8 of 10
S4Tebenko4Shchegelskyi3n = 7Tebenko took 4 of 7
S5Tebenko3Shchegelskyi1n = 4Tebenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoShchegelskyiT − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.938.7−0.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime425 / 863 vs 461 / 90949.3%50.7%425 / 863 vs 461 / 909Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiTebenko 2.10/Shchegelskyi 1.67
Hit
What we said
54%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
0–3
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2481060D. Shchegelskyi341112113
LSep 28 · 05:35Y. Tebenko4471111782D. Shchegelskyi41115311113
LSep 26 · 21:00Y. Tebenko258980D. Shchegelskyi331111113
WSep 20 · 19:05Y. Tebenko3941113113D. Shchegelskyi351151181
WSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko47118611113D. Shchegelskyi4381111942
LApr 28 · 09:35Y. Tebenko4111111091D. Shchegelskyi4481312113
LApr 27 · 13:05Y. Tebenko4211121181D. Shchegelskyi4131413113
LApr 26 · 22:30Y. Tebenko2082100D. Shchegelskyi341111123
WMar 25 · 10:05Y. Tebenko47511911113D. Shchegelskyi4011411682
WFeb 14 · 23:00Y. Tebenko50119811113D. Shchegelskyi4251111872
Y. Tebenko10
WOct 3 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.839101111113Y. Parahailo1.8311126562LOct 3 · 02:00I. Pytsko2.10511116113Y. Tebenko1.6711691172LOct 3 · 01:00Y. Tebenko1.5071131122I. Fashchevskyi2.50111117113WOct 3 · 00:00Y. Tebenko1.83111110113M. Slozka1.83751241LOct 2 · 22:30Y. Tebenko1.91114751O. Storozhenko1.8091111113WOct 2 · 20:30Y. Tebenko1.73611144113D. Maltsev2.00116121162WSep 30 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.917111110113O. Storozhenko1.8011891252LSep 30 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.7511119113Y. Tebenko1.40681191WSep 30 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.8311611113M. Slozka1.83911441WSep 30 · 07:05D. Maltsev2.0011139552Y. Tebenko1.736111111113
D. Shchegelskyi10
WOct 3 · 20:30M. Khomenko2.207790D. Shchegelskyi1.611111113LOct 1 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi2.508880V. Krokhmal1.501111113WOct 1 · 17:05M. Loboda1.61121111592D. Shchegelskyi2.20148411113LOct 1 · 15:05Y. Vorsuliak1.5711311143D. Shchegelskyi2.258118121WOct 1 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.25714113113V. Kaidakov1.57111271192LOct 1 · 13:05A. Nazrin1.36147117113D. Shchegelskyi3.00121171172LOct 1 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.3891111982V. Krokhmal1.53116611113LOct 1 · 01:00M. Loboda1.61121188123D. Shchegelskyi2.201091111102WSep 30 · 23:00Y. Vorsuliak1.57410111152D. Shchegelskyi2.25111264113LSep 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi2.257911111V. Kaidakov1.5711118133
Upcoming Matches
Y. Tebenko
D. Shchegelskyi
Oct 3 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi1.61V. Kovalchuk2.20—Oct 4 · 01:30D. Shchegelskyi2.00Y. Parahailo1.73—Oct 4 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi1.83O. Storozhenko1.83—Oct 4 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.00O. Storozhenko1.73—Oct 4 · 15:05D. Shchegelskyi2.00Y. Parahailo1.73—Oct 4 · 17:05D. Shchegelskyi1.61M. Khomenko2.20—Oct 4 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi1.61V. Kovalchuk2.20—
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