TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Tebenko vs Ivan Fashchevskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711111311117211
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:56 and never touched: 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 75 set 5, 2-11 · our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 66.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 24–11 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 11 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:5666.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
clears by 0.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tebenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
24-11 in 35
Tebenko
Wrong
gap of 13 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1646 vs Fashchevskyi 1465
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 181 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 60% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
Tebenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 70% vs Fashchevskyi 20%
Tebenko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +1 · Fashchevskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Tebenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.50 / Fashchevskyi 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Tebenko)+0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13229267
Tebenko1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 62 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it84% 41 of 49
Fashchevskyi2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 97 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back27% 32 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko7wins
AwayFashchevskyi3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayFashchevskyi50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S3Tebenko7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S4Tebenko3Fashchevskyi4n = 7Fashchevskyi took 4 of 7
S5Tebenko2Fashchevskyi1n = 3Tebenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoFashchevskyiT − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.434.7+5.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime424 / 859 vs 310 / 63249.4%49.1%424 / 859 vs 310 / 632Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.50/Fashchevskyi 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 09:05Y. Tebenko34681191I. Fashchevskyi4211119113
WSep 29 · 16:35Y. Tebenko331111113I. Fashchevskyi235990
LSep 24 · 16:25Y. Tebenko49108121182I. Fashchevskyi521211108113
LSep 22 · 22:45Y. Tebenko381191081I. Fashchevskyi4391112113
WSep 16 · 09:05Y. Tebenko50711119123I. Fashchevskyi42112811102
WSep 15 · 13:05Y. Tebenko4511119143I. Fashchevskyi369411121
WSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko341111123I. Fashchevskyi2064100
WSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko361114113I. Fashchevskyi2281220
WSep 2 · 09:05Y. Tebenko47811116113I. Fashchevskyi3811641162
WAug 31 · 11:05Y. Tebenko3811115113I. Fashchevskyi29921171
Y. Tebenko10
WOct 3 · 00:00Y. Tebenko1.83111110113M. Slozka1.83751241LOct 2 · 22:30Y. Tebenko1.91114751O. Storozhenko1.8091111113WOct 2 · 20:30Y. Tebenko1.73611144113D. Maltsev2.00116121162WSep 30 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.917111110113O. Storozhenko1.8011891252LSep 30 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.7511119113Y. Tebenko1.40681191WSep 30 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.8311611113M. Slozka1.83911441WSep 30 · 07:05D. Maltsev2.0011139552Y. Tebenko1.736111111113WSep 30 · 05:35Y. Tebenko1.80812811113I. Pytsko1.91111011972LSep 29 · 18:35Y. Tebenko1.913860I. Pytsko1.801111113WSep 29 · 16:35I. Fashchevskyi2.505990Y. Tebenko1.501111113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LOct 2 · 23:00I. Pytsko1.531111113I. Fashchevskyi2.385470LOct 2 · 22:00I. Fashchevskyi2.1011671182M. Slozka1.67511118113WOct 2 · 21:00O. Storozhenko1.6781161182I. Fashchevskyi2.10119119113LSep 30 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.104690D. Maltsev1.671111113WSep 30 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.7511119113Y. Tebenko1.40681191LSep 30 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi2.008880I. Pytsko1.731111113LSep 30 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi2.10611531M. Slozka1.6711611113LSep 30 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi2.10791161O. Storozhenko1.6711119113LSep 29 · 18:05I. Fashchevskyi2.10711812142M. Slozka1.671171110163LSep 29 · 16:35I. Fashchevskyi2.505990Y. Tebenko1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
Y. Tebenko
I. Fashchevskyi
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.