TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Myroslav Loboda vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12101198118111210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:42 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMyroslav Loboda to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Myroslav Loboda @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingMyroslav Loboda above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 102 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Myroslav Loboda at 60.5%
102 points played in total.
H2H Myroslav Loboda 28–23 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 23 of their 51 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 23:4260.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Loboda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-23 in 51
Loboda
Correct
gap of 5 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Loboda 1703 vs Shchegelskyi 1559
Loboda
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Loboda 40% vs Shchegelskyi 60%
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Loboda 40% vs Shchegelskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Loboda -1 · Shchegelskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Loboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLoboda 1.615 / Shchegelskyi 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Loboda)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218983
Loboda1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 162 of 282
Up 2–0, closes it93% 100 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it76% 136 of 180
Shchegelskyi2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 60 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back21% 22 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLoboda5wins
AwayShchegelskyi5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLoboda80%4 of 5
AwayShchegelskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Loboda5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Loboda10Shchegelskyi0n = 10Loboda took 10 of 10
S3Loboda3Shchegelskyi7n = 10Shchegelskyi took 7 of 10
S4Loboda3Shchegelskyi5n = 8Shchegelskyi took 5 of 8
S5Loboda2Shchegelskyi3n = 5Shchegelskyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobodaShchegelskyiL − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.939.2+1.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobodaShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 955 vs 457 / 90051.5%50.8%492 / 955 vs 457 / 900Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LobodaLoboda 1.61/Shchegelskyi 2.20
Hit
What we said
60.5%
Loboda · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Myroslav Loboda @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
3–2
Loboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 07:05M. Loboda511011316113D. Shchegelskyi53127111492
WSep 17 · 14:35M. Loboda44111111113D. Shchegelskyi28341381
LSep 16 · 22:30M. Loboda33711691D. Shchegelskyi3511211113
WSep 15 · 02:45M. Loboda531111911113D. Shchegelskyi4266111362
LSep 11 · 07:05M. Loboda4181261142D. Shchegelskyi491110116113
WSep 10 · 14:35M. Loboda331111113D. Shchegelskyi197750
LSep 9 · 22:30M. Loboda4081111282D. Shchegelskyi50118911113
WSep 6 · 18:35M. Loboda331111113D. Shchegelskyi259970
LSep 4 · 07:05M. Loboda50111111892D. Shchegelskyi49591311113
LSep 3 · 14:35M. Loboda311011371D. Shchegelskyi4212811113
M. Loboda10
LOct 1 · 00:00M. Loboda2.0039111192V. Kaidakov1.73111149113WSep 30 · 22:30M. Loboda2.3871311113R. Konkulovskyi1.531111451LSep 30 · 20:30M. Loboda1.8381260V. Krokhmal1.831114113LSep 29 · 02:15I. Hrekh2.2011411113M. Loboda1.61411481WSep 29 · 01:15M. Loboda2.0011811113O. Rodin1.73911871WSep 29 · 00:15M. Loboda1.8381111153V. Krokhmal1.831176131LSep 28 · 22:45M. Loboda2.3891211582R. Konkulovskyi1.531110611113LSep 28 · 20:45M. Loboda1.678760V. Slozka2.101111113WSep 25 · 10:35I. Hrekh2.207960M. Loboda1.611111113LSep 25 · 09:35M. Loboda1.6161171182V. Slozka2.20119117113
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 30 · 23:00Y. Vorsuliak1.57410111152D. Shchegelskyi2.25111264113LSep 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi2.257911111V. Kaidakov1.5711118133LSep 30 · 21:00R. Konkulovskyi1.3031111113D. Shchegelskyi3.40117771WSep 28 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi2.2511118113Y. Vorsuliak1.57971181WSep 28 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2514116992D. Shchegelskyi1.571241111113WSep 28 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.611191291D. Shchegelskyi2.2091114113LSep 28 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.83135131372O. Storozhenko1.8311111511113WSep 28 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.1071111782D. Shchegelskyi1.67115311113LSep 27 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2561141142Y. Vorsuliak1.57116119113LSep 27 · 17:05Y. Kolos2.00118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.7381111672
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